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ALE, FMEA, FMECA, qualitative methods: is it really what we need!?

Many Risk Assessment use Annual Loss Expected (ALE) as a metric for consequences. The failures of the system or subsystems under consideration are evaluated with an array of methodologies. Among these the classic one are Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) and the Failure Mode and Effects Criticality Analysis (FMECA). The essence of FMEA/FMECA is the impact analysis of every potential defect on functionality of the whole system and order of potential defects according to the level of its severity.…

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Governments are pulling on Green Energy Support part 2

When an article about “intuitive” or “impulsive” decision making and its numerous pitfalls gets out, we always check to make sure our services or applications would have allowed a better course selection. It is our duty, in our capacity of decision making support consultants, to make sure our services and applications are robust and would be beneficial to our clients. Last week, in Scientific American of March 1st  we read the following lines. “Basically, governments have allowed the buildup of…

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A “political risk” approach to oil pricing and “failures” to produce

Based on data to be found in the CIA world factbook ) it is easy to find how oil production is shared world-wide among single oil-producing countries, OPEC etc. (see at the end of this post a short summary table with a selection of North African and Middle East Islamic Countries). As crude production variability, due to political, social turmoil and crisis in the Arab World, spanning from North Africa to the Middle East and Iran has stirred a sudden…

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