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Black Swan Mania Part3

In Part 2  we examined social unrest and terrorism, of which we found only one each in the original list . We demonstrated that none of those two cases was actually a Black Swan, because they simply did not fit the definition! Now, in the same list, we see a total of 5 Economic/financial alleged Black Swans, and we are going to use the same approach of Part 2 to see if at least these comply with the definition of Black…

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Black Swan Mania Part2

From the Black Swan list we can count 1 Political/social Black Swan (Unrest in the Middle East). Now if we look at the last 200 years of Human history we can easily count at least 16 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_revolutions_and_rebellions) political/social major large scale events. Even without considering two World Wars, but only “a few additional wars since then“, we get, for the sake of simplicity, to a total of around 20. So, now, the question is: how can anyone try to argue that something…

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Black Swan Mania: Using Buzzwords Can Be a Dangerous Habit

It has been a viral epidemic culminating with the economic recession. We are referring to the use of the term “Black Swan”. Of course we are not talking about the Tchaikovsky ballet, or the recent related movie, but to the Black Swan Theory which refers “to unexpected events of large magnitude and consequence and their dominant role in history”. The theory was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb to explain, for example: The disproportionate role of high-impact, “hard to predict, rare…

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Our clients beat the trends. We are proud to contribute to their leadership.

We have been reading with a lot of interest Deloitte’s report entitled: Tracking the trends 2011, The top 10 issues mining companies will face in the coming year. The issues highlighted in Deloitte’s report are summarized below: 1 Financing 2 Volatility 3 Stakeholders engagement 4 Taxes, regulations and governments 5 How to invest more strategically 6 Hiring and retaining talented workers 7 Prospection (in hazardous areas from a geo-climatic-geographic and political point of view) 8 Climate change and other hazards…

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