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The Hydropower Sustainability Assessment Protocol and Operation Risk Awareness and Preparedness Rating (ORAPR)

One of the challenges of Risk Assessments lies in defining proper metrics for the consequences of hazards hits. When the Risk Assessment bears on a well-defined facility, the task is easier than if the study bears on large and multifaceted systems exposed to risks, like, for example, copper theft or information warfare at national scale, or, similarly, if we are dealing with rational funds allotment and justification for critical infrastructure. Metrics in that case have to cover numerous aspects of…

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Riots in Europe do not Come as a Surprise to our Clients

In March 2010 we broadcasted an update of our predictions, originally published in November 2008 bearing on the duration and depth of the crisis in the Western World. So, if you go back to our post-Lehman Brothers (November 2008) communique, we evaluated a 20% chance the recession would last past Fall 2011, and 10% chance it would last past 2014, with a staggering 55% likelihood it would lead to critical worsening (including riots, military replacing police forces etc.). In addition,…

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Results of our Poll on Cyber Warfare and Risk Based Decision Making Procedures.

We promised to publish the results of our poll, so here they are, for your information. Please note, all percentages are approximate, rounded up to the nearest 5%. While 60% of the respondents use a well defined risk glossary, only 25% use well-defined risk assessment procedures and 40% expresses probabilities in non numeric ways (qualitative, indexes etc.). Almost everyone declares to formally evaluate consequences of their decisions, yet 50% do not formally evaluates cascading failures (dominoes effects, interdependent failures). 60%…

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