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How system definition and interdependencies allow transparent, and scalable Risk Assessments.


Any civil or military system, consists of nodes (Fig. 1) which receive, process or transform, and produce resources. The nodes are generally interdependent, as we shall see later in detail. By defining the system the context of the risk assessment is defined in compliance with ISO 310000. The system’s architecture must be carefully studied by people who intimately know the system . Risk assessment experts can only offer support in this phase as they do not know the structure’s intricacies.…

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More questions raised by PIGs common practice


We oftentimes see PIGs (probability impact graphs) based “ERM binning exercises” being presented where the scale of the graph (generally the consequence axis) is adapted when going from operational to corporate level. This practice certainly does not help a rational approach to strategic, tactical, operational levels and raises several questions: Can we define Manageable and Unmanageable risks in a clear and transparent way? Is it possible to have a clear and simultaneous representation of Strategic, Tactical and Operational scenarios in a…

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How to select among alternatives. A better and safer method than NPV.


The “strongest alternative” is the one that has the largest Economic Safety Margin (ESM), evaluated as the difference between the Project Net Gain (PNG)= Project Returns (PR) – Costs (C) and Total Risk (TR), i.e. the value obtained through the Comparative Decision Analysis (CDA) methodology. Where: ESM=PNG-TR=PR-C-TR=PR- (C+TR). The ESM is the difference between the capacity (the “strength” of a project is equal to the Project Returns) and the demand (the “loading” of a project is equal to the Costs…

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Being and Doing. Intuition and rationality: their balance is the key to sustainable success.


Courses (and conferences) for entrepreneurs and business leaders by Gilles Placet and Franco Oboni The first example of what is intended to be a long lasting format was given on 19 March 2015 to a small focus-group of international professionals in Turin, Italy. Both Gilles and Franco have an industrial and business background ranging from small businesses to large multinational corporations and from local to major international markets. Both of them have gained exceptional skills and knowledge from their own…

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Comparative Decision Analysis-Economic Safety Margin (CDA-ESM): finally an alternative to the obsolete NPV.


CDA/ESM have been included in our Edumine Risk courses for mining for many years. In 2010 we published the article (STOP PROCRASTINATING! NPV IS DEAD: USE RISK AS A KEY DECISION PARAMETER.) in the Canadian Reclamation which showed two mining applications. Is CDA/ESM more complex than NPV? Yes…like a motorcycle is more complex than a motorbike. The point here is that NPV will not take you anywhere safely, as it is misleading, especially for long term projects like mining ones. CDA/ESM…

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A risk perspective on the concerns raised by the liability of hauling dangerous goods.


Riskope thanks Federico Sasso for participating to this research during his summer 2014 internship. The recent Trichloroisocyanuric acid fire event in Port Metro Vancouver raised again concerns related to hauling dangerous goods, immediately reinforced by a new series of crude derailments in Canada, US. It is a topic that we are familiar with since Riskope have performed many risk assessment, and calibrated emergency response plans for industries dealing with toxic substances in urban and other environment settings. In the last…

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Optimum risk estimates (ORE)


ORE starts by asking its users to model the systems using a «fractal like» tile modelling tool (we call them jokingly “risk-engineering Lego”) which helps defining external and internal hazards and focuses the user attention to the interdependent performances of each node. ORE value proposition can be summarized as a quantified FMEA with the systematicity of a HAZOP, without the necessity to delve into the smallest components, at first, as ORE analysis/hazard identification is SCALABLE. Within ORE FTA, ETA, numerical…

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