A Classic Riskope Lecture Content

A Classic Riskope Lecture Content

Jul 14th, 2009

Classic Riskope Lectures content deal with Crises and Emergency Management by using numerous examples drawn from Oboni Riskope Associates Inc. day to day practice. As an introduction, reference is made to Fortune 500 surveys clearly indicating the supremacy of proactive, vs. reactive, corporations, yet showing that only a minority of the surveyed enterprises actually had a proactive stance.

Riskope Lecture Content

Dr. F. Oboni, Ph.D. President Riskope

In the first part of the lecture, the Los Frailes Dam Failure (mining industry) and the Ford-Firestone tire separation (automotive-supplier) crises are taken as examples to show that unified crises models exist, and crises can be measured, compared, and could be prioritized. As an example of well managed crises, in full opposition to the prior examples, an Information Warfare type of attack on Apple (Computers, multimedia) is brought forward. The conclusions of this first part of the lecture are that:
Crises Analysis tools exist and experience shows they do work
Thinking and fixing before a crisis is better than fixing afterwards
Each decision can be supported by transparent and rational evaluations

The second part of the lecture starts by a discussion of common qualitative risk assessments, vs. less common quantitative approaches which lead to explicit consideration of the tolerance threshold of a corporation. Thanks to properly implemented quantitative approaches it is possible to perform ERM or operational risks prioritizations, leading to focus/prioritize management’s attention on a small number of critical issues. Finally several real life risk assessment results are presented, including a large mining company ERM, a road-pipeline system (120km long, in the Andes), a regional approach for a province touched by the Winter Olympics 2006 and even a severely bombed country (Lao PDR). The benefits of undertaking such assessments are clearly summarized. The mix of experiences is a real eye opener for the panel.

The third part of the lecture is devoted to making better decisions by transparently including risks and uncertainties in the decision making process (RBDM, Risk Based Decision Making, through the application of CDA/ESM, Comparative Decision Analysis, Economic Safety Margin). This is the most recent and proactive way of using risk in business, with upside and downside aspects kept in balance through the use the specific methodology. A real life case study, i.e. a large company transportation network (including railroads, trucking, ocean shipping, harbors etc.) is used to show how risk analyses can allow taking proactive actions, proper sizing of insurances, and finally avoid sliding into a crisis situation should a major hazard (natural, terrorism, information warfare) hit.

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Category: Crisis management, Hazard, Risk analysis, Risk management, Tolerance/Acceptability

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