Crisis Forecast, One Year and 3 months Later (reality check)
Mar 5th, 2010
In the “Economic Downturn Magnitude and Duration Quantitative Study” we published in November 2008 a Crisis Forecast in which we established a few classes of “Measurements of Magnitude” for the crisis to come.
economic downturn recession Crisis preditction 2008
Now let’s analyze more in detail the case of Greece (not a G20 country, but a Euro country). What can be read in the news is that a “new round of painful austerity measures, including salary cuts for civil servants, pension freezes and tax hikes” is going to be undertaken.
Therefore we can conclude that Greece went from the class “Blues” to “Generalized Poverty” (see http://www.slideshare.net/Foboni/crisis-forecast-one-year-later). Generalized Poverty is characterized by high rate of unemployment (up to 10% -12%), poor to nonexistent maintenance of civil systems, reduced health programs, reduction of salaries of public officers, protests, some criminality increase, and some violence.
In our paper we defined the probability to see the next level, i.e. “Severe Impoverishment”, characterized by extreme rate of unemployment (over 12%), severe reductions of public transportation offer, gradual replacement of police forces with armed forces patrolling, reduction of state-managed retirement plans, with generalized protests and criminality increase, high violence etc…
Tagged with: assessment, crises, crisis, decision, demining, downturn, economic, management, risk
Category: Hazard, Risk analysis, Risk management