Decision Makers are Hamlet’s Modern-Age Avatars

Decision Makers are Hamlet’s Modern-Age Avatars

Nov 24th, 2010

An Avatar can be either an embodiment (for example: “the Buddha is an avatar of the god Vishnu”) or the personification of a familiar idea (for example “the embodiment of hope”; “the incarnation of evil”, etc.).

So it is fitting to say that Decision makers are Hamlet’s modern age Avatars.

Hopefully they do not have to deal with a nasty uncle who murdered their father and married their mother, but often have to find answers to critical questions, which certainly are not as metaphysical as the famous Hamlet’s one: “To be or not to be? That is the question”.

As a matter of fact, centuries after the famous monologue was written, modern executives are confronted with three prong practical questions rather than the “simple” Shakespearean binary one: “To be or not to be?” That’s the point!

The three prongs are generally:
a) to follow the Status Quo,
b) to embrace a new technology, new Standard Operating Procedures (SOP), new processes, environmentally friendly clean technologies (CT), safer practices, etc.
c) to enhance the Status Quo.

In the aftermath of the economic recession Riskope has repeatedly been called in, to support companies facing decisions surrounded by uncertainties.
Here are a few examples drawn from our day to day practice (See a general approach).

To bus personnel (a), or fly personnel (b)? Or continue the bus service, but invest to enhance the road safety (c)? (See this Example )

To maintain a facility (a) or build a new one (b)? Or enhance the existing one(c)?

To shovel and truck waste rock (a), or crush in situ and then convey (b)? Or renew the truck fleet with more efficient vehicles (c)? (See an Example )

To keep pumping and treating leachates from a landfill (a) or seal it at perpetuity in an artificially created impervious block (b)? Or better the collection and treatment process (c)? (See an Example )

To maintain a contaminated area closed to public (a), or to open it to a specific tourism attraction (b)? Or do so under very particular conditions (c)?

To keep heating costs and waste oils disposal costs (a), or to buy a new system that can dramatically change the balance, by burning waste oils on site (b)? Or enhance the present system by adding insulation and energy sparing devices (c)? (See Part 1 of Example and Part 2 of Example )

To keep a large industrial orphan site unused (a), or to design an entire new set of possible activities which would make it economically viable (b), or just landscape it (c)

To keep selling commercially available cosmetics in a large spa (a) or to develop and launch a new private label line of cosmetics (b), or enter into an exclusivity agreement with “the best in the market” (c )?

To maintain production in an industrialized country (a), or to move all production oversea to a developing country (b), or reduce costs by streamlining production at home (c )?

Today more than ever, proper decision making is needed to ensure a sustainable development of any operation. Risk (positive and negative) is a good discriminant for selecting among alternatives, and Risk Based Decision Making will improve the sustainability and long term chances of success of any operation. Contact us, we know how to support you.

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Category: Risk analysis, Risk management

One response to “Decision Makers are Hamlet’s Modern-Age Avatars”

  1. […] It is paramount to think before acting, with a clear and transparent approach including risks and other non deterministic factor, to enhance the survivability and return on investment just as we wrote in the recently published post on Decision Making […]

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