Governments are pulling on Green Energy Support part 2
Mar 9th, 2011
When an article about “intuitive” or “impulsive” decision making and its numerous pitfalls gets out, we always check to make sure our services or applications would have allowed a better course selection. It is our duty, in our capacity of decision making support consultants, to make sure our services and applications are robust and would be beneficial to our clients.
Governments are pulling on Green Energy Support part 2
Last week, in Scientific American of March 1st we read the following lines.
“Basically, governments have allowed the buildup of wind (energy) without thinking through the (electrical) grid consequences”. Those are the words of Oxford University economist Dieter Helm told ClimateWire. “There are two responses: Stop wasting so much on the rapid development of wind and its questionable economics, or plough-on regardless, in which case enormous grid investments are urgently needed.”
We were not really surprised as exactly 1 month ago, we wrote the following in this blog. It is paramount to think before acting, with a clear and transparent approach including risks and other non deterministic factor, to enhance the survivability and return on investment just as we wrote in the recently published post on Decision Making.
We decided to prove ourselves, once again, that our CDA/ESM is a robust decision making tool. In other words, that it would have “caught” the problem of the wind farms. CDA/ESM stands for Comparative Decision Analysis/Economic Safety Margin and is a powerful risk adjusted cost estimator. Thus I opened the manual. I immediately noticed the second line of the “Usable Life Analysis” in the project risks assessment section. It contains a whole register dedicated to the scalability and adaptability to existent systems!
The instruments to keep a level head exist and do work. Why are we still not using proper tools to help us in our (high stakes) decision?
Tagged with: alternative, Analysis, assessment, Comparative, cost, decision, development, Financial, holistic, management, projects, risk, software, sustainability
Category: Risk analysis, Risk management
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