Riots in Europe do not Come as a Surprise to our Clients

Riots in Europe do not Come as a Surprise to our Clients

Aug 17th, 2011

In March 2010 we broadcasted an update of our predictions. We originally published those predictions in November 2008 bearing on the duration and depth of the crisis in the Western World. Riots in Europe do not Come as a Surprise to our Clients

Riots in Europe do not Come as a Surprise to our Clients

So, please go back to our post-Lehman Brothers (November 2008) communique. We evaluated a 20% chance the recession would last past Fall 2011. In addition there was 10% chance it would last past 2014. Finally there was a staggering 55% likelihood for critical worsening. That worsening would include riots, military replacing police forces etc.

In addition, in the Black Swan series of three posts beginning with this one we demonstrated how we, Humans, have a very short and biased memory and tend to believe that the last event in a series is “incredible, unheard of, one in a life time, etc.”

So, really Riots in the UK ,  Riots in Greece, Indignados in Spain , Indignados in Ireland ,  Protests in Italy , Biggest wave of protests in decades in Israel , just to quote the major ones…were not unforeseeable, on the contrary, they were predictable, and we predicted them.

Sounds familiar now?

These evaluations were performed with one goal: helping our clients in their strategic planning and decision making.

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Category: Crisis management, Hazard, Risk analysis

2 responses to “Riots in Europe do not Come as a Surprise to our Clients”

  1. […] predicting that the crisis would be long-lasting and deep, consequences would hit public services, public […]

  2. […] way to be a winner rather than a loser…We will not discuss banks and governments, but you can see from the media, the story is perfectly mirrored in those fields as […]

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