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In this blogpost we look at another tool: the Event Tree Analysis, ETA.
In our day to day practice we frequently see risk assessments methodologies stretched to «fit the clients’ case». In other words, people select tools to deliver results out of the initial methodology’s scope. This blogpost is a brief summary for the Event Tree analysis (ETA). It is one of the most common methodologies to evaluate probabilities of complex cascading events in terms of series of conditional probabilities.
In reality, Event Tree Analysis, ETA, is a graphic-mathematical forward, bottom-up, logical modelling technique. It is a common mistake to develop excessively complex ETA giving their users a false sense of security and precision.
You can use ETA to:
In fact, ETA is a failure analysis tool. As such, you can integrate it in Quantitative Risk Assessments.