Comparative Decision Analysis-Economic Safety Margin (CDA-ESM): finally an alternative to the obsolete NPV.
Mar 19th, 2015
Figure 1. For each analysis: min, max, average of the cumulative cost at forty years
We have included CDA/ESM in our Edumine Risk courses for mining for many years.
In 2010 we published the article (STOP PROCRASTINATING! NPV IS DEAD: USE RISK AS A KEY DECISION PARAMETER.) in the Canadian Reclamation. Indeed it showed two mining applications.
Is CDA/ESM more complex than NPV? Yes, of course! Like a motorcycle is more complex than a motorbike. The point here is that NPV will not take you anywhere safely. Indeed it is misleading, especially for long term projects like mining ones.
Riskope designed CDA/ESM with civil, mining, infrastructure projects in mind. Thus it is not a “financial world clonation” like the other available methods.
CDA/ESM will take you safely to the desired outcome, i.e a sound financial and risk based evaluation of your projects.
We have been very pleased to hear that, at last, some universities will put some Ph.D. Students investigating things we have spent money and effort researching.
Here are some examples:
C., Oboni, F., Oboni, Aspects of Risk Tolerability, Manageable vs. Unmanageable Risks in Relation to Governance and Effective Leadership, Geohazards 6 (2014), Kingston (ON), Canada, June 15 – 18, 2014.
F., Oboni, C., Oboni, Ethics and transparent risk communication start with proper risk assessment methodologies, EGU General Assembly 2014, Vienna, May, 2014
Oboni,C, Oboni. F, Aspects of Risk Tolerability, Manageable vs. Unmanageable Risks in Relation to Governance and Effective Leadership, International Symposium on Business and Management, Nagoya, Aichi-ken, Japan, April 2014
Oboni, C., Oboni F., Factual and Foreseeable Reliability of Tailings Dams and Nuclear Reactors -a Societal Acceptability Perspective, Tailings and Mine Waste 2013, Banff, AB , November 6 to 9, 2013
Oboni, F., Oboni, C., Zabolotniuk, S., Can We Stop Misrepresenting Reality to the Public?, CIM 2013, Toronto
Oboni, F., Oboni, C., Is it true that PIGs fly when evaluating risks of tailings management systems? Short Course and paper, Tailings and Mine Waste ’12, Keystone Colorado and finally
Call/email us for CDA-ESM and ORE deployments and any other clarification.
Tagged with: Comparative Decision Analysis, NPV
Category: Consequences, Hazard, Optimum Risk Estimates, Risk analysis, Risk management