Business startups success show stoppers and tolerable risks

Business startups success show stoppers and tolerable risks

This is a follow up on last week’s post showing how ORE can evaluate business startups success, show stoppers and tolerable risks.

Indeed, ORE showed quantitatively where the a priori:

• “party-breakers”,
• “underlying assumptions” as well as
• “key success elements”

were in each case. Thus it allows to avoid those pitfalls.

The success and failure probabilities were in good agreement with a Kaufmann Foundation study.

For the portfolio analysis we have now to look at the Table below. It shows a “zoom” into the model’s result.

The first column gives the functional elements list. Each function has a list of corresponding looming hazards. They have not been displayed because of confidentiality issues.

Red coloured cells highlight the critical functions (riskiest) for each company/start-up based on ORE ranking algorithm.

Green coloured cells highlight functions that one can ignore (not mitigated). That is  until all the more critical ones have been mitigated, for a maximum efficiency, again, based on ORE ranking algorithm.

The seven companies, the functional elements of their system, together with their “functions'” a priori probability of failure and the colouring related to their a priori criticality (red) or tolerable state (green). We display probabilities lower than 0.01 as 0.00.

As it can be seen the Startup companies with the most “tolerable” functions are:

• #6 (4),
• #5 and Startup #1 (3 each)
• #4 and Startup #7 (2 each), and finally
• #3 (0)

and those with the most critical ones are:

• #7 (4)
• #5, Startup #1, Startup #4, Startup #2 and Startup #3 (2 each), and finally
• #6 (1)

Results delivered by ORE applied to Startups include the list of the tolerable and critical functions.

The first constitute an interesting information for corporate management. The second are vital knowledge for the prospective investor.

Tagged with: business, key success elements, party-breakers, quantitative, Startups, success, tolerable risks, underlying assumptions

Category: Risk analysis, Risk management, Uncategorized