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Oil and gas are also victims of risk matrix

A recent paper entitled The Risk of Using Risk Matrices shows that Oil and gas are also victims of risk matrix. The paper analyses the widespread use of Probability Impact Graphs (PIGs, risk matrix) in Oil and Gas (O&G). It comes to very similar conclusions to those reached by other academics and practitioners and us! “Classic” Risk Matrices deficiencies Risk-Acceptance Inconsistency. The regions depicted in common practice PIGs (Risk matrix, Example 1 later on ) feature arbitrary stepped borders which…

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Risk module in MBA course

We just delivered the third edition of our Risk module in MBA course at the SAA (University of Turin, Italy, School of Management). Each time we roll out a new course edition we eagerly await the delegates’ reactions. This years we had in front of us a very active and brilliant group of professionals. Here are a couple comments at the end of the three days module: Angelo Costa, Ph.D., Head of Innovative IT Solutions Sales Department at TIM wrote:…

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Oroville Dam Spillway Incident Report

The Oroville Dam Spillway Incident Report became public in January 2018. The story it tells is remarkably similar to the one we assumed, based on publicly available information in the aftermath of the accident. As risk advisers and managers we discuss below the various statements in the Oroville Dam Spillway Incident Report. We aim at highlighting risk biases and potential management changes to avoid similar developments. Oroville Dam Spillway Incident Report Conclusions Commented The Independent Forensic Team Report made a number…

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What is the validity of your risk forecast?

When talking to potential customers we oftentimes hear “ What is the validity of your risk forecast? ” What they mean is actually “how precise” our numbers are. That type of questions generally comes from individuals that confuse risk assessment with divinatory arts. They do not recognize that performing a risk assessment is completely different than reading a crystal ball. Another common objection comes from people that claim that no one can evaluate probabilities of events because of complexities, etc.…

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Acting intuitively or planning with a 360 view of upward and downward tactical and strategic risks

The ever present conflict between Acting intuitively or planning with a 360 view of upward and downward tactical and strategic risks. We know it exists, we can see it, we know when others fall for ill guided intuition. Yet we often do it. There is a growing bias towards action in our society. We glorify action, when successful. Blunders, if they happen to others, quickly forgotten. Action often reigns in projects, startups. Excitement of the “new” works as a dope…

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