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Tailings dams quantitative risk assessment

Tailings dams quantitative risk assessment

Nov 21st, 2018

Tailings dams quantitative risk assessment has to rely on proper evaluation of consequences and probabilities. The goal is to be able to economically and swiftly prioritize a portfolio of dams. That is in order to develop risk informed decision making for mitigation as also discussed in a recent blogpost.

Tailings dams quantitative risk assessment

ORE2_Tailings app to evaluate probabilities

ORE2_Tailings app is primarily addressing the needs of owners or regulators of dam portfolios. A dam portfolio may cover several extractive centers, several mining companies with one or more dams each, etc.

A one-day course allows a “dam” engineer to master the entry of data in the ORE2_Tailings input screens.

ORE2_Tailings app evaluates the probability of dams breaking by answering 30 closed questions. Each question offers a choice of answers from which to choose one. That greatly alleviates the difficulty of using the app and is compatible with the preliminary evaluation which is the goal of ORE2_Tailings.

It is thus possible to economically and swiftly prioritize the portfolio in terms of probability of rupture.

ORE2_Tailings app also allows benchmarking of portfolio dams against world-wide history of failures and recent disasters (Mount Polley, Samarco).

Tailings dams quantitative risk assessment

Risk is the combination of probability of failure and consequences.

As explained in this blogposts consequences of a dam-break are a complex affair.

It is nowadays impossible to reduce their evaluation to a simplified application. Thus it is necessary to develop detailed studies case by case, when necessary.

ORE2_Tailings benefits

All ORE2_Tailings evaluations can be easily updated and are based on generally available or observable data. Furthermore ORE2_Tailings explicitly considers the lack of knowledge, i.e. uncertainties on data, and missing data in the evaluation. Explicit consideration of uncertainties is a fundamental step towards reasonable, transparent and ethical risk assessments.

ORE2_Tailings app deployment is available through various channels, in order to maximize its RoI (Return on Investment):

  • For a small portfolio it may be better to let Riskope deploy ORE2_Tailings app and provide you with the results;
  • For an “intermediate” portfolio ORE2_Tailings app deployment via cloud, annual subscription delivers the best RoI. The annual costs depend on the number of dams, the number of simultaneous access required (licenses).
  • For a large portfolio or in case the customer does not want a cloud application, the purchase of an “ad hoc” license for ORE2_Tailings app installation on the client’s server is possible. Also, depending on the service settings, the price is to be discussed.

Finally, as many of the selections to the questions in the ORE2_Tailings app can be answered by satellite observation, owners of large portfolios have the possibility to eliminate or reduce conventional observation and monitoring costs.

Contact us to organize a phone conversation to discuss the matter and define the best possible ORE2_Tailings deployment mode for your dam portfolio.

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Category: Consequences, Hazard, Optimum Risk Estimates, Probabilities, Risk analysis, Risk management

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