Evacuating Grenville-sur-la-Rouge is a good decision but maybe not the right one
May 1st, 2019
Evacuating Grenville-sur-la-Rouge is a good decision but maybe not the right one. Indeed, when performing Risk Informed Decision Making (RIDM) a distinction must be made between right decisions and good decisions.
Imagery (c)2019 DigitalGlobe, Google data (c)2019 Google
A bit of background of on Bell Falls Hydro Dam
Reportedly, the officials stated that: “we’re running about 940 cubic metres per second, and they predict it could go up as much as 1300 cubic metres per second. The dam was designed for a maximum one-thousand-year flood of 960 cubic metres per second.” Grenville-sur-la-Rouge evacuated while the dam at the time of us writing this blog post is still standing.
Decision under uncertainty.
Even if the Bell Falls Hydro Dam remain standing after the flooding, it was still a good decision. However, it might appear with insight, it was bad one. Indeed, as they say, insight is 20/20. It is an expression that embodies the fact that right or wrong decision is not relevant for a good or bad decision. E.G. we know that playing at the lottery has a negative expected value so a wrong decision. Most people will lose money, but for that very lucky individual it was indeed a good decision.
Risk Informed Decision (RIDM) is not a gift of foresight
Indeed, we have decommissioned the crystal ball long ago. What we deliver to our clients is a risk dashboard which displays what hazard impinge at different locations in decreasing order of intolerable risks. This enables our clients to evaluate feasibility, size the right level of mitigation or purchase the right insurance.
Risk assessment updatability
Because of the changing nature of our world new information continuously becomes available or just change. You have to update your risk assessments to reflect those changes. To make a good decision, it is therefore a necessity (in a RIDM framework) to have a risk assessment that is easily updatable. The conclusion and prioritization that follows from the said risk assessment must also be easily drawn, compared to prior states and acted on.
You may find yourself overwhelmed with the “results” of a Risk Assessment. Or the update of a risk assessment may feel overly cumbersome.
Contact us to learn how to solve the situation.
Tagged with: Evacuating, good decision, Risk assessment updatability, risk dashboard
Category: Consequences, Hazard, Risk analysis, Risk management