Tactical and strategic planning to mitigate divergent events

Tactical and strategic planning to mitigate divergent events

Nov 18th, 2020

Tactical and strategic planning to mitigate divergent events is one of the themes of our next book. The term divergent does not yet appear in our glossary, as we are preparing its fourth edition. Stay tuned for the announcement of its publication.

Tactical and strategic planning to mitigate divergent events

In short, hazards or exposures become divergent when they part from long term averages and “usual extremes”, both in terms of frequencies and/or magnitude. For example, a hundred-year rain event that occurs three times in a short interval is a divergent event until new long-term behavior is established.

Why are we talking about divergent risks tactical and strategic planning?

Recent disasters all over the world, such as large-scale fires, flooding, hail and dust storms, locusts and epidemics have demonstrated the need to enhance tactical and strategic planning. There is also a blatant need to foster healthy awareness and reduce fears and panic reactions at all levels of our societies.

Climatic divergence from long term averages and “usual extremes”, both in terms of frequencies and intensities, reinforces this need due to a new wave of Green Deals, the Paris agreement and other efforts. Key players around the world require more and more careful evaluations and risk informed decision-making.

The goal of divergent risk informed decision-making is to allow systems’ healthy and ethical operational, tactical and strategic planning. That planning must be based on sensible estimates of risks of various origin and significance. Systems are defined as sets of elements working together and/or interconnected geared toward accomplishing a set of goals, objectives. System exist in any discipline, area or business, from administration, to industry, environment and finally society.

Tactical and strategic planning to mitigate divergent events

Consider Tactical and strategic planning to mitigate divergent events as a medicine to help:

  • containing fear and knee-jerk reactions,
  • reduce blunders, and finally
  • enhance value building and ethics, while planning for climate change and other “runaway” hazards.

To attain these goals, it is paramount to foster predictability and foreseeability of divergent hazards.

If you are not familiar with the terms predictability and foreseeability, do not worry. We will define them soon in detail. In addition they will be part of the fourth edition of our glossary.

Closing remarks

Divergent hazards are “present” today and will always be lurking in our future. Perhaps they will appear under the form of climate change events, potential meteorites/asteroid collisions, sun flares (magnetic pulse), pandemics or super-volcanoes.

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Category: Consequences, Hazard, Probabilities, Risk analysis, Risk management, Uncategorized

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