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Prefeasibility hazard adjusted NPV

A mining company asked us to perform a Prefeasibility hazard adjusted NPV evaluation. Our action first focused on bringing clarity in their risk register which presented numerous classic mistakes. Among these the usual confusion in terminology, confusing risks and hazards, uncertainties vs risks, etc. Once the risk register was corrected it was possible to perform the requested hazard adjusted NPV and to draw valuable conclusions. Among these, we highlighted potential fatal flaws of the project which warranted in depth analyses…

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OpenAI’s ChatGPT applied to tailings dams and associated risks

As everyone else, we got excited about the new ChatGPT so we tried OpenAI’s ChatGPT applied to tailings dams and associated risks. OpenAI is San Francisco-based research laboratory. Its founders and donors are, among others, Elon Musk and Peter Thiel, along with technology companies like Microsoft. ChatGPT is a publicly available free app that generates “human-like” written replies. The acronym GPT stands for “Generative Pre-trained Transformer” . Note that our colleague Mike Porter started a thread on ChatGPT on LinkedIn. Numerous members…

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ORE2_Tailings and ALARP

A colleague recently engaged a discussion on ORE2_Tailings and ALARP. He presented various refences on the subject then asked us to check if ORE2_Tailings™ complies with the various definitions. Indeed, we have published on ALARP in recent international conferences: Oboni C., Oboni, F., A Case Study on ALARP Optimization, Tailings 2022, Santiago Chile, May July, 2022 and Oboni F., Oboni C., Optimizing mitigation of tailings dams portfolios, Tailings and Mine Waste 2022, Denver, CO ,November, 2021 (video). We are delighted to report…

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TMW2022 discussion and video presentation

TMW2022 discussion and video presentation covers some important points and coveys our gratitude to the friendly colleagues that helped us overcome a significant work overload. Indeed, for the first time since 2013, we could not make it to the conference to present in person the results of our R&D. We were particularly sorry for this, as the reviewer wrote: The authors present a discussion on how to optimize actions needed to address risk mitigation to ALARP for a large TSF…

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Tailings risk assessment methods comparison

In order to develop a Tailings risk assessment methods comparison we will start by: reviewing a number of existing alternatives to ORE2_Tailings™. This leads to justify the need for the ORE2_Tailings™ approach, discussing what we call the Blackbox objection, which actually applies to all the alternatives and finally the ORE2_Tailings™ procedure, algorithm and results. Alternatives to ORE2_Tailings™ We have grouped possible alternatives into four families discussed below. FMEA FMEA is not a quantitative risk assessment even if it uses indices…

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Three cases where quantitative risk assessment was paramount

Oftentimes we hear people objecting to quantitative risk assessments (QRA). Thus today we show three cases where quantitative risk assessment was paramount. Now, do not get mistaken, those are not the only cases where QRA is useful. However, they are particularly significant. Risk review of a mining mega project New projects are always exciting. Therefore their promoters oftentimes get emotionally attached to them to the point of forgetting that they may be exposed to significant risks. The use of codes…

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Tailings risks correlations

Tailings risk correlations or lack thereof refers to a phenomenon we oftentimes encounter in ORE ERMs deployments in various industries. The risk bubble in the p-C graph The figure below shows a classic simplified result from a ERM. The quadrant is the probability (p), Consequence (C) quadrant with the addition of the risk tolerance band. The band has a width corresponding to the divergent opinion between optimistic and pessimistic key stakeholders on tolerance. A given hazard has uncertainties on both…

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A risky mission

We undertake a risky mission today. That is to reply to information requests we have received from various interested readers in a very concise manner. The risks of the mission mostly arise from: the wide breath of the requests: “please let us know where we could learn about Riskope tailings management activities and methodologies” and the necessity to select among the vast available documentation. A classic preliminary reply We generally start our reply by inviting interested readers to visit Riskope’s…

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