It is obvious that risk and uncertainty analyses can and will always be challenged by opposing stakeholders not satisfied with probability assessments. They will base the challenge based on their subjective, modeled or even „pseudo statistical“ approaches. Under the excuse of limited or poor available knowledge of the problem at stake some stakeholder may invoke the „unrepresentative“ character of expert analyses. In addition they will try to avoid making sensible decisions based on “mistrust„ in the results. Indeed they will…
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Johari window application in risk management is an exploration of possible corporate application of a therapeutic tool. The psychologists Joseph Luft and Harrington Ingham developed the tool back in 1955. The Johari window became world-renown when US Secretary of Defence Rumsfeld quoted parts of it. You probably remember the known unknowns and the unknowns you do not know you don’t know in an “intelligence” talk. The Johari window and its original meaning The Johari window is a four squares graph…
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A risk advisor point of view on Blockchain is the result of recent readings in specialized news outlets. Some boldly stated “… and just hope you jumped on time on the bandwagon as such solutions will likely represent a deadly competitive threat to those who do not have them.” Why is that statement so bold and enthusiastic? The idea is indeed extremely enticing: imagine having solutions capable of replacing many of the most onerous processes in contracts and transactions. For…
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Lately we have been busy working on a mining related comprehensive risk assessment. Integrating traditional knowledge in risk assessments proved to be a significant skill as public records and other usually available data were almost non-existent. We use the adjective “comprehensive” for risk assessments covering multi hazards (earthquake, flood, man-made, etc…). The term also covers assessments with a variety of targets such as population, environment, as well as supply chain network elements. Various source of information When performing a comprehensive…
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Big data or Thick data: two faces of a coin which can be defined as follows. Big data (BIDA) is a term for large or complex data sets that traditional software has difficulties to process. Process generally means for example capture, storage, analysis, curation, searching, sharing, transferring, visualizing, querying, updating, etc. However, the term also often refers to the use of predictive analytics, user behavior analytics or certain other advanced data analytics methods. Analysis of data sets can find new…
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Lean enterprises win. A bit more than a century ago the Norwegians conquered the South Pole while well funded and well resourced British “competitors” in the race to Antarctica all died on the way back. Lean enterprises win The Norwegian expedition leader was Roald Amundsen. He trained with the Inuit in Canada during an epic prior expedition to the North West passage. Robert Scott led the British team and showed up at the South Pole 34 days later than Amundsen…
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Below are my views of the various presentations heard at CIM2017 in Montreal, during the Technical session towards improving environmental social disclosure NI43-101. Various talks, from various speakers, who shed some light on this multi-faceted theme were the trigger to this blogpost. Each one came from his or her own line of business and interest, including myself. Technical session towards improving environmental social disclosure NI43-101 There was a broad consensus that risks are not only “technical” matters any more. The…
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In the case of Oroville dam, the population exposed to the potential dam failure has increased significantly. Normalization of deviance increased the probability of failure. So is it possible that Oroville Dam risks became unmanageable because of that? Oroville Dam risks became unmanageable? When looking at risk mitigation the old saying is that you can either lower the probability or lower the consequences. That statement requires some explanation. Indeed what mitigation alone can do is exclusively to reduce the probability of…
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