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Probabilities statistics and rate of failure

19-06-2019

Probabilities statistics and rate of failure data in literature demand caution even if delving in reputable databases seems to offer a very simple path. Indeed, one of the cornerstones of risk assessments is assessing probabilities of failure of different components. Classic sources examples are: Component Reliability Data for Use in Probabilistic Safety Assessment,” IAEA-TECDOC-478, International Atomic Energy Agency (Oct. 1988), (Link to document) and Anon (1991), Non-electronic Parts Reliability Data, RAC Report NPRD, Reliability Analysis Center,Griffiss AFB, NY (Link to…

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Is data indigestion a risk?

11-06-2019

In a world that used to be data-starved, is data indigestion a risk? Data starvation It is rare that we review a project where the monitoring system really works. Instruments fail, are destroyed by neighboring construction, by contractors and animals. Winter conditions, soft soils and tailings or other factors forbid access, timely replacement or maintenance. And then, piezometer do not measure the levels they should because of some geotechnical oddity or construction problem, inclinometers are too short, etc. In some…

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Limit of credibility in risk assessments

5-06-2019

Many users invoke Limit of credibility in risk assessments but rarely discuss what this means. It is possible to establish limits on the credibility of probabilities estimates based upon the limits of human capabilities and the limits of historical evidence? Limit of credibility in risk assessments, what do we really mean? Let’s start with a couple statements that may sound like a joke. …and there was light The Big Bang universe creation occurred 1010 years ago, meaning the “history of…

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Probabilities inconsistencies in a Risk Management Framework

29-05-2019

Can you detect Probabilities inconsistencies in a Risk Management Framework ? While performing a Risk Management Functions Audit we were asked to review the following Probability-Annual frequency categories. Cat Probability Annual Frequency 5 >95% More than once per year 4 50 to 94% At least once every other yr 3 20 to 49% Once every 2 to 5 years 2 5 to 19% Every 5 to 20 years 1 <5% Less than once every 20 yrs The values of the…

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Cadia tailings facility failure expert review and risk considerations

22-05-2019

Cadia tailings facility failure expert review and risk considerations allow us to discuss InSAR application and low seismicity considerations for pre-failure risk assessment. The Cadia Ridgeway Mine failure was already the object of a preliminary discussion in the immediate aftermath of the unfortunate event. These themes are very important and are present in our forthcoming book Tailings Dam Management for the Twenty-First Century What Mining Companies Need to Know and Do to Thrive in Our Complex World By Franco Oboni and…

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Riskope’s new book Tailings Dam Management for the Twenty-First Century

14-05-2019

Riskope’s new book Tailings Dam Management for the Twenty-First Century is in print. This book is based on over thirty years of world-wide consulting experience, relentless methodological research and development, prior books, courses, seminars delivered to corporate key stakeholders, public and governmental agencies, public hearings, expert witnessing in civil and criminal courts, and over fifty technical papers. Its purpose is to identify and describe risk assessment approaches and risk management practices mining must implement to develop a positive path forward. That is…

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Talking about return rate is a disservice to the public

8-05-2019

Talking about return rate is a disservice to the public even if flood experts usually use the term when communicating to the public. Background of Bell Falls Hydro Dam The officials stated that: “… The dam was designed for a maximum one-thousand-year flood of 960 cubic metres per second.” We will look at relatively rare events. For the sake of this discussion, let’s consider events with a probability of less than 1/10 per year. At 1/10 talking about probability to…

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