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Independent Forensic Team Report Oroville Dam Spillway Analysis

18-04-2018

We just read the Appendix F From 2018 Independent Forensic Team Report Oroville Dam Spillway Analysis. So, we decided to discuss a few points from our risk perspective. It was a joy to read the statements the Independent Forensic Team made on “normalization of deviance” and the disproportionate influence some experts may exert on group deliberations. Indeed a Potential Failure Modes Analysis (PFMA) team generally includes various members bringing diverse perspectives into the process. Oftentimes one or two strongly opinionated persons,…

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Broken window fallacy parable amid risk misinformed decision

11-04-2018

The broken window fallacy parable amid risk misinformed decision is the belief that destruction is good for the economy. Frederic Bastiat, a French economist, introduced the concept in 1850. It illustrates why destruction and related recovery expenditures are not beneficial to society. The broken window fallacy parable amid risk misinformed decision The aim of the broken window fallacy parable is to discuss hidden, or ignored effects of opportunity costs and unintended consequences on economic activities. The opportunity cost is the loss of…

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Social License to Operate and Risks

4-04-2018

Does your risk management keep a separate scale for environmental, logal, or business interruption? Do you treat separately Cyber risk from your operational risk? i.e. Do you look at Social License to Operate and Risks as separate siloes or do you integrate them? Let’s start by noting that the Social License to Operate (SLO) basic assumption is that communities/social expectations around projects/activities of mining companies usually exceed legal matters. SLO refers to non-explicit “agreement” made by industry with society and…

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Data in probabilities assessment

28-03-2018

Data in probabilities assessment constitute an everyday conundrum. The key question is what constitutes essential (understood as basic, indispensable) and ideal (understood as “perfect”) data set. There is no “simple” answer to that question. Consider that we often deal with prototypes or new facilities before commissioning. Past performances may not reflect future behavior because of system or climatic changes. Indeed, any internal or external change to the system has the potential to prove assumptions wrong. In particular, that past experiences…

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Success and failure criteria in mining risk assessment

21-03-2018

The numerous comments made in the aftermath of the Cadia goldmine accident offer the opportunity to discuss Success and failure criteria in mining risk assessment. Cadia goldmine accident comments Several comments congratulated the mine for their overall tailings management, for the limited volumes involved, for the limited breach of the dam. They came from highly experienced dam engineers and mining people. The media, however, focused on the business interruption. Some were not as enthusiastic about the overall performance and stressed…

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Tailings dam failure at the Cadia-Ridgeway Mine in Australia

14-03-2018

We learned last week about a tailings dam failure at the Cadia-Ridgeway Mine in Australia. We are going to discuss a few points we know as they relate to Tailings Dams Risk Management. What we know about the tailings dam failure at the Cadia-Ridgeway Mine in Australia In the late afternoon of Friday March 9th , Cadia identified a limited breakthrough of tailings material at its northern tailings dam embankment as shown in the press release they produced. This tailings…

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Convergent Quantitative Cyber Risk Assessment to Optimize Enterprise Reliability

7-03-2018

.Convergent Quantitative Cyber Risk Assessment to Optimize Enterprise Reliability will be the theme of our paper at CIM 2018 conference. Reportedly KPMG’s Toronto office produced a text entitled “Insights Into Mining” stating that mining companies “may be” underestimating the risk of cyberattacks. Indeed they consider this risk will increase as more companies embrace mining automation, IoT, etc. The report also emphasizes that mining executives believe based, like usual, on “feeling and perceptions”  that innovation and the risk of disruption are…

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