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Skynet ‘s Terminator is happening now

 Every morning, day after day, we see rough market data, large volatility, brutal drops, sudden heaves. Some companies are seeing the market capitalization play yo-yo several times a week, if not daily. For example: Dendreon Corp.’s shares fell 69% in less than two minutes in April 2009 followed by an after hour rally. Diebold Inc., June 2nd , share price plummeted more than 30% in six seconds, before shooting back up Dendreon & Diebold shares most likely have been “victims”…

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What Fukushima (2010) nuclear accident, the Twin Towers (9/11) terror attack, deadly traffic accidents and Aquila earthquake (Italy), hurricanes have in common?

In this blogpost we attempt an update of Whitman’s and ANCOLD tolerance/acceptability curves. These link casualties from man-made or natural catastrophes, large dams failures to a “tolerable” annual probability. The attempt shows evidence for a G8-wide societal acceptability which has only slightly changed since the original studies by Whitman..   We have already discussed many times how well-balanced and sustainable decisions can only be taken if risks are compared to properly defined risk tolerance /acceptability criteria. Comparison of various risk…

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The Hydropower Sustainability Assessment Protocol and Operation Risk Awareness and Preparedness Rating (ORAPR)

Sustainability Assessment Protocol and Operation Risk Awareness and Preparedness Rating offer the subject to an interesting discussion. One of the challenges of Risk Assessments lies in defining proper metrics for the consequences of hazards hits. When the Risk Assessment bears on a well-defined facility, the task is relatively easy. Easier than if the study bears on large and multifaceted systems exposed to risks. Among these, for example copper theft or information warfare at national scale, or, similarly, if we are…

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Riots in Europe do not Come as a Surprise to our Clients

In March 2010 we broadcasted an update of our predictions. We originally published those predictions in November 2008 bearing on the duration and depth of the crisis in the Western World. Riots in Europe do not Come as a Surprise to our Clients Riots in Europe do not Come as a Surprise to our Clients So, please go back to our post-Lehman Brothers (November 2008) communique. We evaluated a 20% chance the recession would last past Fall 2011. In addition there…

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Our clients beat the trends. We are proud to contribute to their leadership.

Our clients beat the trends. We are proud to contribute to their leadership. This blogpost discusses this issue. The trigger lied in reading a Deloitte’s report. As a matter of fact, we read with a lot of interest Deloitte’s report entitled: Tracking the trends 2011, The top 10 issues mining companies will face in the coming year. The issues We summarize below the issues highlighted in Deloitte’s report: 1 Financing 2 Volatility 3 Stakeholders engagement 4 Taxes, regulations and governments…

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Force Majeure clauses in contracts should be optimized to reduce costs and litigation potential.

We will discuss today why Force Majeure clauses in contracts should be optimized to reduce costs and litigation potential. Force Majeure clauses in contracts should be optimized to reduce costs and litigation potential. Indeed, any time spent in the aftermath of a mishap “discussing” if the event was Force Majeure, negligence or had other causes severely impacts operations. In addition it can significantly increase the costs of consequences. Thus the need to optimize the Force Majeure formulation. If it was…

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Crisis Forecast One Year Later

On 14-15 Sept 2008 Lehman Brother went down in flames. In the aftermath of Lehman Brother crash we published on internet a forecast of the crisis “duration and magnitude”. Interestingly, only a handful of contacts asked us clarifications and to give details on the scale of consequence we had used (is it linked to stock markets? To financial indicators?)… May be, no one believed that reasonable predictions can be made? As we were publishing our prediction, we were indeed already…

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Short Courses

On April 14th 2010 Franco is invited to give a half-day long short course at a mining conference in Santiago de Chile. More information here (in Spanish) Similar short courses (customized to your company’s needs) can be organized world-wide, or you can opt for a remote-education solution, as explained here (in English). In February 2010 there will be a 3×2.5hrs webcast by Cesar and Franco, organized by Edumine, from Vancouver. Let us know if you are interested. Examples of courses…

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