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Lessons learned in twenty years of hazard, risk and resilience analyses

Writing lessons learned in twenty years of hazard, risk and resilience analyses has been a difficult exercise for various reasons. We compiled  and explain lessons learned in our practice of risk assessment and resilience advice to industries, municipalities and regional governments around the world in our latest book, Convergent Leadership – Divergent Exposures: Climate Change, Resilience, Vulnerabilities, and Ethics. However, the fact that we systematically apply our quantitative convergent approach (ORE, Optimum Risk Estimates) to all sorts of industries and…

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Tailings dam mitigation risk informed decision making

Tailings dam mitigation risk informed decision making closes the discussion we presented in prior blogposts. We now focus on one dam and show how ORE2_Tailings™ supports rational and sensible risk mitigation decision-making as requested by GISTM. The dam case The dam we selected for this example is inactive and is parallel to a valley bottom. An unprotected creek runs at its toe and the bed is considered to be sufficient for the 1/500 return. Beyond that flood, there will be…

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Dam portfolio ORE2_Tailings support for decision makers

Dam portfolio ORE2_Tailings support for decision makers follows-up on a prior example. We will show how to interpret the graph we present in that prior post. Dams probabilities of failure and ORE2_Tailings benchmarking at portfolio level. The portfolio of ten dams is displayed on the annualized probability of failure graph, together with the world-wide benchmarks. This graph shows dams: AA1 entirely under the benchmark range, AA3 straddling the benchmark range (uncertainty on the worse case pf estimate slightly above benchmark),…

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Dam portfolio ORE2_Tailings support for ICMM standard on tailings management.

Dam portfolio ORE2_Tailings support for ICMM standard on tailings management (GISTM) is multifaceted. ORE2_Tailings™ is a risk assessment platform specifically Riskope designed specifically for tailings systems. When we deploy it to a portfolio of dams, possibly over multiple properties, it allows for tactical and strategic planning. We have already discussed the single dam case in relation to ICMM • Global Industry Standard on Tailings Management (2020)  and the conformance protocols. Today we present an example of deployment at portfolio level.…

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ORE2_Tailings supports ICMM global industry standard on tailings management conformance

ORE2_Tailings supports ICMM global industry standard on tailings management conformance (GISTM). ORE2_Tailings™ is a risk assessment platform specifically designed for tailings systems created by Riskope.   We recently published the notes we took while reading ICMM guidance and conformance protocols. In that text we stated that ORE2_Tailings™ anticipated the requirements of ICMM GISTM. Indeed, the threads of our publications, which culminated with Tailings Dam Management for the Twenty-First Century shows that evolution. Today we bring to your attention an example…

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Reading the ICMM Guidance and Conformance protocols

We started reading the ICMM Guidance and Conformance protocols with great interest and were pleased with a number of specifications we saw. Of course, an endeavor of this magnitude and scope will stir a lot of interest in the mining world. From our end, given our long experience in tailings system risks, we could not resist to compare the protocols to our day-to-day practice. We noted areas where more detailed explanations would likely benefit the mining industry and the public.…

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Risk Analysis of a European Tailings System

We recently reviewed a risk analysis of a European tailings system prepared for a NGO. Although the document is public, we will keep site, owner, NGO and author’s names confidential. Indeed, the aim of this blogpost is not to be polemic, but to foster better quality of such documents. The study encompasses studying four main archival documents and reviewing more than one thousand others. These confirmed the main documents data and interpretation. In addition the authors perfromed a site visit.…

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Factor of Safety and probability of failure of geostructures

Today we discuss the Factor of Safety and probability of failure of geostructures. We presented this discussion  at TMW 2020 and are delighted to share with you our talk.    This information is applicable to dams as well as dumps and pit slopes. However that requires the analyst pay attention to the specific details pertaining each type of structure. Factor of safety and probability of failure of geostructures The Factor of Safety (FoS) measures the ability of a structure to…

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