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Terremotos, tsunamis, terrorismo, guerra cibernética, incertidumbres económicas. ¿Están todavía preguntandose porqué necesitan gestión de riesgos y modernas herramientas de decisión?

Pensamos que sería bueno publicar nuestra presentación en Bogotá castellano en el blog. Aquí está el enlace. En caso que te interese, tenemos un seminario web (webcast) muy completo y listo para emitir en castellano, sólo háganoslo saber que está interesado y si tenemos registros suficientes lo organizaremos. Utilice el cuadro de comentarios para pre-registrarse para un posible seminario web.

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Quinn Storm and Rolf Medicane gave us the opportunity to test the Balangero Asbestos Mine Environmental Risk Based Decision Making (RBDM) Restoration Design under Extreme Meteorological Conditions. Another success for CDA-ESM!

Two storm gave us the opportunity to test the Balangero Asbestos Mine Environmental Risk Based Decision Making (RBDM) Restoration Design under Extreme Meteorological Conditions. In the past (2009) we already reported in this blog about an interesting environmental restoration project that was entirely designed using RBDM.  As the project includes a large reforestation program, we have been updating our reports. In fact we just published and presented a paper on it at Tailings and Mine Waste 2011 Conference,Vancouver, Canada. Asbestos Mine…

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Information Security, Cyberwarfare, Security Guidelines.

This year has seen an unprecedented number of highly visible cybersecurity events. Entire countries disappeared from internet during riots and revolts in North Africa, Egypt, Libya. Metropolitan underground e-mails and phones were obscured by the authorities in San Francisco to “protect us”. Reportedly the hacker group Anonymous has now threatened to take down the New York Stock Exchange‘s computers in what we at Riskope would see as a “logical” development of the Men against Machines War we described in a recent posting…

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Skynet ‘s Terminator is happening now

 Every morning, day after day, we see rough market data, large volatility, brutal drops, sudden heaves. Some companies are seeing the market capitalization play yo-yo several times a week, if not daily. For example: Dendreon Corp.’s shares fell 69% in less than two minutes in April 2009 followed by an after hour rally. Diebold Inc., June 2nd , share price plummeted more than 30% in six seconds, before shooting back up Dendreon & Diebold shares most likely have been “victims”…

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What Fukushima (2010) nuclear accident, the Twin Towers (9/11) terror attack, deadly traffic accidents and Aquila earthquake (Italy), hurricanes have in common?

In this blogpost we attempt an update of Whitman’s and ANCOLD tolerance/acceptability curves. These link casualties from man-made or natural catastrophes, large dams failures to a “tolerable” annual probability. The attempt shows evidence for a G8-wide societal acceptability which has only slightly changed since the original studies by Whitman..   We have already discussed many times how well-balanced and sustainable decisions can only be taken if risks are compared to properly defined risk tolerance /acceptability criteria. Comparison of various risk…

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The Hydropower Sustainability Assessment Protocol and Operation Risk Awareness and Preparedness Rating (ORAPR)

Sustainability Assessment Protocol and Operation Risk Awareness and Preparedness Rating offer the subject to an interesting discussion. One of the challenges of Risk Assessments lies in defining proper metrics for the consequences of hazards hits. When the Risk Assessment bears on a well-defined facility, the task is relatively easy. Easier than if the study bears on large and multifaceted systems exposed to risks. Among these, for example copper theft or information warfare at national scale, or, similarly, if we are…

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Results of our Poll on Cyber Warfare and Risk Based Decision Making Procedures.

We promised to publish the results of our Poll on Cyber Warfare and Risk Based Decision Making Procedures.  So here they are, for your information. Results of our Poll on Cyber Warfare and Risk Based Decision Making Procedures. Please note, all percentages are approximate, rounded up to the nearest 5%. 60% of the respondents use a well defined risk glossary. However, only 25% use well-defined risk assessment procedures and 40% expresses probabilities in non numeric ways (qualitative, indexes etc.). Almost…

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Black Swan Mania Part3

In Part 2  we examined social unrest and terrorism, of which we found only one each in the original list . We demonstrated that none of those two cases was actually a Black Swan, because they simply did not fit the definition! Now, in the same list, we see a total of 5 Economic/financial alleged Black Swans, and we are going to use the same approach of Part 2 to see if at least these comply with the definition of Black…

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