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Risk evaluation for dam break

A client asked us to perform a risk evaluation for dam break methodological review. As a result we reviewed risk guidelines regarding the public living or working in the inundation zone of a dam. Ultimately, the goal is to help decide tolerable risk vs. relocation of potentially impacted homes or livelihoods. As a matter of fact, we think this is an important subject and have thus decided to publish it. In Section 1 we review the procedure leading to risk-informed…

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The fall of the Roman empire, asymmetrical attacks, and modern mining

At Riskope we see impressive similarities between the fall of the Roman empire, asymmetrical attacks, and modern mining. The fall of the Roman empire, asymmetrical attacks The Western Roman empire, the one headquartered in Rome, was brought down little by little by the compounded effect of numerous factors and hazards. Among them we can cite: internal political problems, barbarian invasions, economic crises and finally, other demographic and social factors. The Eastern Roman Empire, i.e. the Byzantine extension, ended-up collapsing under…

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Why climate risk and consequence overcost have common similarities

Today we look at why climate risk and consequence overcost have common similarities. Have you ever been involved in a project whose final budget exploded due to consequence of apparently small, negligible schedule or material risks? Similarly, even thus we record small change in weather averages, big impacts are being noticed. Let’s find out why this happens. Probability of overcost vs. Likelihood of event Lets suppose the consequences of a risk scenario vary between 0 and 20M$ with an average…

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Insurance denial amid climate change

We explore today how insurance denial amid climate change will impact assets and other aspects of business. In particular, we think at fires like the Australian bushfires and Fort McMurray (Canada) fire in addition to increasing rains leading to flooding. These will undeniably be a ‘big drag’ on growth and have already generated invaluable losses to biodiversity. Furthermore, insurance denial will become a  problem as we discussed back in 2016 and even as far as 2009. Insurance denial amid climate change…

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ORE2_Tailings Potential Failure Causality Analysis

ORE2_Tailings Potential Failure Causality Analysis is one of the features of Riskope’s tailings dam specific application. Indeed ORE2_Tailings looks at the causes of dam failure rather then the reasons why dams fail (the “failure modes”). That is because the root cause of a dam failure is typically the result of a combination of deviances. Recent forensic studies on major catastrophic failures have eloquently demonstrated that. Normalization of deviance Catastrophic failures, like most major accidents are indeed always generated by an…

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Climate change historic prediction

In 1938 the Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society published a Climate change historic prediction. An article by Guy Steward Callendar discussed the artificial production of carbon dioxide and its influence on atmospheric temperature. Artificial production of carbon dioxide and its influence on temperature That paper is reportedly the first alert about a phenomenon that has since preoccupied scores of researchers and is becoming main stream reason for ubiquitous protests and even riots. I do not know if Mr Callendar…

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Cognitive biases apply to tailings discussions

Cognitive biases apply to tailings discussions more than one could think. Indeed, cognitive biases can cloud debates and oftentimes lead to worrisome “alternative facts” bordering with fake news. Cognitive biases are likely hidden in glossy documents, websites, seemingly authoritative statistical approaches which are then oftentimes referenced by inattentive readers. The final effect is of course to perpetrate the cognitive drifts. Original authors foster the noble cause of reducing the risks posed by the hazardous structures used to contain tailings, i.e.…

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Notes on Global Tailings Standard Draft for Public Consultation

In follow-up to Aidan Davy’s (ICMM) keynote session at TMW2019, here are our Notes on Global Tailings Standard Draft for Public Consultation. To this date the three co-conveners (UNEP, ICMM and PRI) reportedly did not endorse the draft. Positive Notes on Global Tailings Standard Draft for Public Consultation We found the current draft to be an overall well written document. It encompasses important points on: human rights (see chapter 5 on “what people want” in our latest book) conflict of…

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