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ORE2_Tailings Dam Probability of Failure Analysis

ORE2_Tailings Dam Probability of Failure Analysis is the next step in the ORE2_Tailings deployment for a tailings dam. Last week we looked at the causality analysis and the general data structure  enabling the methodology to work. Data for Tailings Dam probability analysis Ancillary water management structures such as weirs, penstock and related tunnel, diversion ditches are described and evaluated including water balance and its “near-misses”. The presence of pipelines at the crest is also part of the potential hazardous elements…

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ORE2_Tailings Potential Failure Causality Analysis

ORE2_Tailings Potential Failure Causality Analysis is one of the features of Riskope’s tailings dam specific application. Indeed ORE2_Tailings looks at the causes of dam failure rather then the reasons why dams fail (the “failure modes”). That is because the root cause of a dam failure is typically the result of a combination of deviances. Recent forensic studies on major catastrophic failures have eloquently demonstrated that. Normalization of deviance Catastrophic failures, like most major accidents are indeed always generated by an…

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Climate change historic prediction

In 1938 the Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society published a Climate change historic prediction. An article by Guy Steward Callendar discussed the artificial production of carbon dioxide and its influence on atmospheric temperature. Artificial production of carbon dioxide and its influence on temperature That paper is reportedly the first alert about a phenomenon that has since preoccupied scores of researchers and is becoming main stream reason for ubiquitous protests and even riots. I do not know if Mr Callendar…

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Cognitive biases apply to tailings discussions

Cognitive biases apply to tailings discussions more than one could think. Indeed, cognitive biases can cloud debates and oftentimes lead to worrisome “alternative facts” bordering with fake news. Cognitive biases are likely hidden in glossy documents, websites, seemingly authoritative statistical approaches which are then oftentimes referenced by inattentive readers. The final effect is of course to perpetrate the cognitive drifts. Original authors foster the noble cause of reducing the risks posed by the hazardous structures used to contain tailings, i.e.…

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Notes on Global Tailings Standard Draft for Public Consultation

In follow-up to Aidan Davy’s (ICMM) keynote session at TMW2019, here are our Notes on Global Tailings Standard Draft for Public Consultation. To this date the three co-conveners (UNEP, ICMM and PRI) reportedly did not endorse the draft. Positive Notes on Global Tailings Standard Draft for Public Consultation We found the current draft to be an overall well written document. It encompasses important points on: human rights (see chapter 5 on “what people want” in our latest book) conflict of…

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Light on Tailings dams failures

The Church of England Pensions Board and the Council of Ethics of the Swedish National Pension Funds published some recently collected numbers shedding some light on Tailings dams failures.   How many active dams in the world did we assume earlier? In the literature we oftentimes see the number 3500 to characterize the total tailings dam inventory in the world. We used that number in both the following papers: Oboni, C., Oboni F., Factual and Foreseeable Reliability of Tailings Dams and…

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ORE2_Tailings case history

ORE2_Tailings case history looks at a real tailings dam. It shows how to interpret ORE2_Tailings probabilities ranges predictions, benchmarks and other useful indications.   Description of the real-life active tailings dam case history The case history is a 72.5m high dam with a modified centerline cross section. Construction has stopped, meaning there is no active deposition at this time. Therefore the dam is inactive. The dam stores tailings and a supernatant pond. It has a weir in fair state of…

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Facts about worldwide tailings dam performances

Reliable facts about worldwide tailings dam performances are hard to come by. Emotions or politically driven approaches often lead to fake news in mining which feed media eager to sell copies. Indeed, “wannabe” comprehensive reviews of tailings dam failures oftentimes also draw conclusion that may at first feel right. However, under closer scrutiny, they are far from being realistic for a variety of reasons we will endeavor to discuss today. Counting accidents Taxonomy of accidents A reasonable approach is to…

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