Why climate risk and consequence overcost have common similarities

Today we look at why climate risk and consequence overcost have common similarities. Have you ever been involved in a project whose final budget exploded due to consequence of apparently small, negligible schedule or material risks? Similarly, even thus we record small change in weather averages, big impacts are being noticed. Let’s find out why this happens. Probability of overcost vs. Likelihood of event Lets suppose the consequences of a risk scenario vary between 0 and 20M$ with an average…

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Insurance denial amid climate change

We explore today how insurance denial amid climate change will impact assets and other aspects of business. In particular, we think at fires like the Australian bushfires and Fort McMurray (Canada) fire in addition to increasing rains leading to flooding. These will undeniably be a ‘big drag’ on growth and have already generated invaluable losses to biodiversity. Furthermore, insurance denial will become a  problem as we discussed back in 2016 and even as far as 2009. Insurance denial amid climate change…

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Probabilities of climate change events

Probabilities of climate change events is the natural extension of our prior blogpost on the ICMM climate change report. Will climate change generate new hazards? Because of the complexity of the issue, let’s start with a few statements. We will discuss climate change effects, but not climate change causes. In addition, let’s note that climate change may generate some “new” hazards, for instance, large scale, generalized: methane releases in permafrost areas (domes, pingos), ocean acidification, frost-free seasons allowing parasite to…

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Probability Impact Graphs do not fly

Probability Impact Graphs do not fly. For short PIGs do not fly was part of the title of a risk management course we gave at TMW 2012. In that course we explained why Probability Impact Graphs (PIGs) and “heat maps” are obsolete, misleading and should be abandoned. We recently read a paper by D. Vose who is finally “kinda coming to our side”. We are delighted by his paper. Indeed, at Riskope we started over ten years ago to point out…

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Climate adaptation and risk assessment

Climate adaptation and risk assessment are the main themes of a recent ICMM report we read during the holidays. Our take-away from the Climate adaptation and risk assessment report The ICMM report notes that physical climate-change risks and opportunities can impact mining companies in a multitude of ways. Examples are: operations, production, financial, social and finally environmental. Thus, the risk landscape of companies can change quite significantly due to shifts in probabilities of occurrence and consequences of climate-related events. The report…

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ORE2_Tailings Dam Probability of Failure Analysis

ORE2_Tailings Dam Probability of Failure Analysis is the next step in the ORE2_Tailings deployment for a tailings dam. Last week we looked at the causality analysis and the general data structure  enabling the methodology to work. Data for Tailings Dam probability analysis Ancillary water management structures such as weirs, penstock and related tunnel, diversion ditches are described and evaluated including water balance and its “near-misses”. The presence of pipelines at the crest is also part of the potential hazardous elements…

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ORE2_Tailings Potential Failure Causality Analysis

ORE2_Tailings Potential Failure Causality Analysis is one of the features of Riskope’s tailings dam specific application. Indeed ORE2_Tailings looks at the causes of dam failure rather then the reasons why dams fail (the “failure modes”). That is because the root cause of a dam failure is typically the result of a combination of deviances. Recent forensic studies on major catastrophic failures have eloquently demonstrated that. Normalization of deviance Catastrophic failures, like most major accidents are indeed always generated by an…

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Climate change historic prediction

In 1938 the Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society published a Climate change historic prediction. An article by Guy Steward Callendar discussed the artificial production of carbon dioxide and its influence on atmospheric temperature. Artificial production of carbon dioxide and its influence on temperature That paper is reportedly the first alert about a phenomenon that has since preoccupied scores of researchers and is becoming main stream reason for ubiquitous protests and even riots. I do not know if Mr Callendar…

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