Archives

Archive

Framing probabilities of new normal patterns

Framing probabilities of new normal patterns is oftentimes necessary. For example when geopolitical changes, climate change, etc., alter long term “normal” patterns. Oftentimes that occurs with seemingly repeated extreme events. The probabilities in the “New normal” may significantly alter the risk landscape around a project or a corporation. They may transform tolerable risks into intolerable ones, tactical risks into strategic ones (see figure below). To ensure decision-makers and management can keep optimizing tactical and strategic planning a rational, emotionless update…

Read More

Risk triage, bundling and mitigation roadmaps

Risk triage, bundling and mitigation roadmaps shows how to define strategic, tactical risk and develop an actionable risk integrated framework for projects, operations and corporations. The text constitutes Chapter 8 of the book Global Hot Spots, Caltrop Press. Its title is A Practical Integrated Risk Framework For Projects, Operations And Corporations.  Risk triage, bundling and mitigation roadmaps Readers go through a real-life case risk register. They read about a common practice risks assessment and triage (heat map, PIGs, etc.) and…

Read More

Risk Assessments Strategy and Strategic planning

Risk Assessments Strategy and Strategic planning is inspired by a book entitled Strategy for Executives. In that book strategy is defined as “a compendium of deliberate choices that an organization makes to maximize its value over a given period of time”. Defining Strategy and meaning of risks We like the book’s dynamic definition of strategy. Moreover, it fits very well with our definition of strategic risks which derives from the use of explicit risk tolerance thresholds in the ORE methodology.…

Read More

Probabilities statistics and rate of failure

Probabilities statistics and rate of failure data in literature demand caution even if delving in reputable databases seems to offer a very simple path. Indeed, one of the cornerstones of risk assessments is assessing probabilities of failure of different components. Classic sources examples are: Component Reliability Data for Use in Probabilistic Safety Assessment,” IAEA-TECDOC-478, International Atomic Energy Agency (Oct. 1988), (Link to document) and Anon (1991), Non-electronic Parts Reliability Data, RAC Report NPRD, Reliability Analysis Center,Griffiss AFB, NY (Link to…

Read More

Is data indigestion a risk?

In a world that used to be data-starved, is data indigestion a risk? Data starvation It is rare that we review a project where the monitoring system really works. Instruments fail, are destroyed by neighboring construction, by contractors and animals. Winter conditions, soft soils and tailings or other factors forbid access, timely replacement or maintenance. And then, piezometer do not measure the levels they should because of some geotechnical oddity or construction problem, inclinometers are too short, etc. In some…

Read More

Limit of credibility in risk assessments

Many users invoke Limit of credibility in risk assessments but rarely discuss what this means. It is possible to establish limits on the credibility of probabilities estimates based upon the limits of human capabilities and the limits of historical evidence? Limit of credibility in risk assessments, what do we really mean? Let’s start with a couple statements that may sound like a joke. …and there was light The Big Bang universe creation occurred 1010 years ago, meaning the “history of…

Read More

Probabilities inconsistencies in a Risk Management Framework

Can you detect Probabilities inconsistencies in a Risk Management Framework ? While performing a Risk Management Functions Audit we were asked to review the following Probability-Annual frequency categories. Cat Probability Annual Frequency 5 >95% More than once per year 4 50 to 94% At least once every other yr 3 20 to 49% Once every 2 to 5 years 2 5 to 19% Every 5 to 20 years 1 <5% Less than once every 20 yrs The values of the…

Read More

Cadia tailings facility failure expert review and risk considerations

Cadia tailings facility failure expert review and risk considerations allow us to discuss InSAR application and low seismicity considerations for pre-failure risk assessment. The Cadia Ridgeway Mine failure was already the object of a preliminary discussion in the immediate aftermath of the unfortunate event. These themes are very important and are present in our forthcoming book Tailings Dam Management for the Twenty-First Century What Mining Companies Need to Know and Do to Thrive in Our Complex World By Franco Oboni and…

Read More

Hosted and powered by WR London.