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Tailings dam portfolio screening level risk assessment is the title of our latest paper on this extremely interesting subject. The paper uses a case history to show how we helped management of a complex operation with a portfolio of dams to develop a risk management road-map. In addition uncertainties, incomplete information are always explicitly considered when we deploy tailings dam portfolio screening level risk assessment. Tailings dam portfolio screening level risk assessment The dam portfolio approach addresses managers who have…
Read MoreYes, we know, the title of this post: Risk related definitions to avoid risky confusions sounds a bit like a joke. However, we can assure that complying to these definitions will save you and your company time, money, limit liabilities and reduce chances of litigation. At the beginning of Summer we pointed out there is still major confusion even in basic definitions of risk and uncertainties. Also that occurs not only within a single industry, but, even worse, across…
Read MoreA risk advisor point of view on Blockchain is the result of recent readings in specialized news outlets. Some boldly stated “… and just hope you jumped on time on the bandwagon as such solutions will likely represent a deadly competitive threat to those who do not have them.” Why is that statement so bold and enthusiastic? The idea is indeed extremely enticing: imagine having solutions capable of replacing many of the most onerous processes in contracts and transactions. For…
Read MoreLately we have been busy working on a mining related comprehensive risk assessment. Integrating traditional knowledge in risk assessments proved to be a significant skill as public records and other usually available data were almost non-existent. We use the adjective “comprehensive” for risk assessments covering multi hazards (earthquake, flood, man-made, etc…). The term also covers assessments with a variety of targets such as population, environment, as well as supply chain network elements. Various source of information When performing a comprehensive…
Read MoreIn the case of Oroville dam, the population exposed to the potential dam failure has increased significantly. Normalization of deviance increased the probability of failure. So is it possible that Oroville Dam risks became unmanageable because of that? Oroville Dam risks became unmanageable? When looking at risk mitigation the old saying is that you can either lower the probability or lower the consequences. That statement requires some explanation. Indeed what mitigation alone can do is exclusively to reduce the probability of…
Read MoreJim Rohn’s quote “Failure is not a single, cataclysmic event. You don’t fail overnight. Instead, failure is a few errors in judgment, repeated every day”. That quote struck a chord with the recent failure at Oroville dam, as indeed failures do not happen overnight. In Oroville dam “sudden” crisis we can quote various historic deviances Here is a tenative list of historic deviances: Oroville Dam annual inspections carried by State of California Division of Safety of Dam found water “seepage”…
Read MoreThis week we discuss why it is not necessary to invoke chaos, “complexity” and “irrational methods” to solve problems corporations and governments face when dealing with risks and uncertainties. A historic view In the mid-60s Peter L. Bernstein’s 1996 wrote a book entitled “Against the Gods, the remarkable story of risk”. The book offered a historic view of risk management and the forces which drove it. Voices have raised since claiming that accepted risk management practices have reached their obsolescence point.…
Read MoreA Japanese court has ruled that Negligence by the state contributed to the triple Fukushima 2011 meltdown. So, this time it is not a negligence related to a landslide, a dam breach or a flood. It is negligence related to a major nuclear accident (Factual and Foreseeable Reliability of Tailings Dams and Nuclear Reactors -a Societal Acceptability Perspective) to be in the center of a lawsuit. As far as we know it is a first in the world. Negligence by…
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