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Probability Impact Graphs do not fly

Probability Impact Graphs do not fly. For short PIGs do not fly was part of the title of a risk management course we gave at TMW 2012. In that course we explained why Probability Impact Graphs (PIGs) and “heat maps” are obsolete, misleading and should be abandoned. We recently read a paper by D. Vose who is finally “kinda coming to our side”. We are delighted by his paper. Indeed, at Riskope we started over ten years ago to point out…

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Light on Tailings dams failures

The Church of England Pensions Board and the Council of Ethics of the Swedish National Pension Funds published some recently collected numbers shedding some light on Tailings dams failures.   How many active dams in the world did we assume earlier? In the literature we oftentimes see the number 3500 to characterize the total tailings dam inventory in the world. We used that number in both the following papers: Oboni, C., Oboni F., Factual and Foreseeable Reliability of Tailings Dams and…

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Risk-aversion and near misses in mining

A study in the Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries explains the relationship between Risk-aversion and near misses in mining. According to a recent study there is a link between near misses and miners’ attitudes toward risky behavior. Frankly, this does not sound like a surprising statement at all. However the study from NIOSH develops a scientific understanding around the gut-feeling perception. Risk-aversion and near misses in mining study NIOSH surveyed more than 1,300 miners, a majority of whom…

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Tailings Dam Management for the Twenty-First Century

Tailings Dam Management for the Twenty-First Century discusses a comprehensive approach to address the need to improve the: design of tailings dams, management and finally regulation of tailings management facilities. The aim is to explore what What Mining Companies Need to Know and Do to Thrive in Our Complex World. The book summary, ToC are available at https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030194468. Tailings Dam Management for the Twenty-First Century Tailings Dam Management for the Twenty-First Century discusses what the public seeks in terms of:…

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Risk triage, bundling and mitigation roadmaps

Risk triage, bundling and mitigation roadmaps shows how to define strategic, tactical risk and develop an actionable risk integrated framework for projects, operations and corporations. The text constitutes Chapter 8 of the book Global Hot Spots, Caltrop Press. Its title is A Practical Integrated Risk Framework For Projects, Operations And Corporations.  Risk triage, bundling and mitigation roadmaps Readers go through a real-life case risk register. They read about a common practice risks assessment and triage (heat map, PIGs, etc.) and…

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Probabilities inconsistencies in a Risk Management Framework

Can you detect Probabilities inconsistencies in a Risk Management Framework ? While performing a Risk Management Functions Audit we were asked to review the following Probability-Annual frequency categories. Cat Probability Annual Frequency 5 >95% More than once per year 4 50 to 94% At least once every other yr 3 20 to 49% Once every 2 to 5 years 2 5 to 19% Every 5 to 20 years 1 <5% Less than once every 20 yrs The values of the…

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Questions from a reader interested in risk assessment

We received a number of questions from a reader interested in risk assessment. After we replied we thought these questions may be of general interest, so, here they are, with their answers. General questions from a reader interested in risk assessment Q1: On your website you use acronyms such as FTA and ETA what are these? A1: Failure Tree Analysis (FTA), Event Tree Analysis(ETA) are tools used to evaluate the probability of failure and/or the development of complex events starting…

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Improving project cost evaluations

We read last week a CIM annoucement of a Metallurgy and Materials Society (MetSoc) webinar on September 20 about Improving project cost evaluations. BQE Water President & CEO David Kratochvil will present the seminar. Subject matter Our friend David will discuss the shortcomings of conventional Net Present Value and risk assessments applied to water treatment plants. He will explain how to overcome potential uncertainties with the Risk Adjusted Life Cycle Cost analysis approach. Comparing alternatives for a project requires careful…

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