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Two real life examples of Phase I Risk Based Decision Making

Risk Based Decision Making We would like to show you two examples of Phase I Risk Based Decision Making. Phase I means that a preliminary decision is made based on Risk Prioritization alone. That is without financial comparative evaluations of the alternatives using CDA-ESM. In other words without evaluating the long term cost of the alternatives including upside and downside risks. When users include risks in long term cost estimates they refer to the procedure as risk adjusted cost The…

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BP Crisis Rational Analysis: What BP Did Not Perform?

  Now it’s time to test the Risk and Crisis Evaluation Methodology we published back in 2008 on the BP Gulf of Mexico spill. We originally presented the methodology in our book (F. Oboni & C. Oboni, Improving Sustainability through Reasonable Risk & Crisis Management, 2007). Risk and Crisis Evaluation Methodology Let’s start with the probability of the spill. At Riskope we: are not oil experts, so can only assume that this accident, that various voices in the media declared as…

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A few comments on a recent paper entitled “Not up in the air. Risk-management lessons from the volcanic ash cloud”, pubished by economists.com on April 20th

A few phrases from the paper named Risk-management lessons from the volcanic ash cloud are copied below in italics, then commented: …Conventional thinking about risk management holds that risks are mainly local and routine—that it is possible to list all the negative events that could happen, determine their probability based on past experience… Risk-management lessons from the volcanic ash cloud Two common wrong behaviors are indicated in the phrase above: 1) risks to be included in a risk assessment are not…

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How to rationally select among alternatives in long term projects with CDA-ESM

Today we discuss how to rationally select among alternatives in long term projects with CDA-ESM. This post is companion to the already published: How to get the most out of (Vegetable) Waste Oil for your Small or Medium Business.  How to rationally select among alternatives in long term projects with CDA-ESM CDA-ESM can help you to select the best option. CDA-ESM is about rationally select among alternatives in long term projects with CDA-ESM. We use an ”average sized” fast food restaurant…

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A discussion of the latest COSO paper on the development of organizations’ resilience to risk.

COSO recently published a thorough PAPER. COSO paper on the development of organizations’ resilience to risk is intended to help foster new dialog between boards and senior executive leadership as they partner to more fully develop their organization’s resilience to risk. We think the paper does address the critical issues, however: 1) it lacks a Glossary, thus it may be misinterpreted by readers that have not been educated in risk. 2) as a consequence of 1), some terms (for example “risk tolerance”)…

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Can we quantify reputational risk? Basel Committee is getting close to asking this.

quantify reputational risk The Basel Committee is getting closer to asking firms to try to quantify reputational risk and at Riskope we consider it absolutely feasible. Indeed, in the probability-cost of consequence plot (i.e. the “risk space”) reputational risks can be easily added (they come as costs multipliers). These two presentations: Pres1 and Pres2 contain information from our courses and book related to adding reputational components to standard risk assessments and risk based decision making. This type of analyses can…

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Risk Based Decision Making in Mining Webcast

Risk Based Decision Making in Mining Webcast This Risk Based Decision Making in Mining Webcast course is the perfect alternative for busy professionals! Attend these live sessions from your workstation at home or in the office. Prior to the course you will have access to online e-learning material which will increase your understanding and appreciation of the webcast. This course also contributes to your Continuing Professional Development (CPD)! Summary This course introduces a unified transparent approach to risk and crisis management…

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Crisis Forecast One Year Later

On 14-15 Sept 2008 Lehman Brother went down in flames. In the aftermath of Lehman Brother crash we published on internet a forecast of the crisis “duration and magnitude”. Interestingly, only a handful of contacts asked us clarifications and to give details on the scale of consequence we had used (is it linked to stock markets? To financial indicators?)… May be, no one believed that reasonable predictions can be made? As we were publishing our prediction, we were indeed already…

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