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Transportation related mining accidents

Transportation related mining accidents can be tricky due to their multiple aspects. In addition they often occur outside of the operation perimeter. In general, transport infrastructure is exposed to natural hazards as well as man-made hazards. Indeed, in a recently published study named “A global multi-hazard risk analysis of road and railway infrastructure assets” produced interesting results. “~27% of all global road and railway assets are exposed to at least one hazard and ~7.5% of all assets are exposed to…

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Real Estate Due Diligence vs. Risk Informed Decision Making

Real Estate Due Diligence vs. Risk Informed Decision Making stems out of reading a real estate deal due diligence guide by Jon Hegwood. The guide states that “the due diligence period is a formalized discovery window to confirm assumptions, identify potential hiccups, uncover unforeseen issues, and ultimately, determine the feasibility of a project. It’s the active mitigation of physical, financial and legal uncertainties”. Given that definition and our experience in large contracts, Mergers and Acquisition risk assessment it was inevitable that…

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Cobriza, Peru tailings dam failure

Cobriza, Peru tailings dam failure occurred at Cobriza in Peru on July 10th   2019.  Cobriza is a copper mine. Reportedly “the concentrator was operated at a rate quite below its capacity due to lack of mine ore and lately (2016 and 2017) due to lack of capacity in the tailings dam“.  The plant is also subject to a highly controversial liquidation. Media invoke poor management as a cause of the failure. Google Earth image of the Cobriza mine tailings in Peru. The failed…

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Framing probabilities of new normal patterns

Framing probabilities of new normal patterns is oftentimes necessary. For example when geopolitical changes, climate change, etc., alter long term “normal” patterns. Oftentimes that occurs with seemingly repeated extreme events. The probabilities in the “New normal” may significantly alter the risk landscape around a project or a corporation. They may transform tolerable risks into intolerable ones, tactical risks into strategic ones (see figure below). To ensure decision-makers and management can keep optimizing tactical and strategic planning a rational, emotionless update…

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Risk Assessments Strategy and Strategic planning

Risk Assessments Strategy and Strategic planning is inspired by a book entitled Strategy for Executives. In that book strategy is defined as “a compendium of deliberate choices that an organization makes to maximize its value over a given period of time”. Defining Strategy and meaning of risks We like the book’s dynamic definition of strategy. Moreover, it fits very well with our definition of strategic risks which derives from the use of explicit risk tolerance thresholds in the ORE methodology.…

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Probabilities statistics and rate of failure

Probabilities statistics and rate of failure data in literature demand caution even if delving in reputable databases seems to offer a very simple path. Indeed, one of the cornerstones of risk assessments is assessing probabilities of failure of different components. Classic sources examples are: Component Reliability Data for Use in Probabilistic Safety Assessment,” IAEA-TECDOC-478, International Atomic Energy Agency (Oct. 1988), (Link to document) and Anon (1991), Non-electronic Parts Reliability Data, RAC Report NPRD, Reliability Analysis Center,Griffiss AFB, NY (Link to…

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ORE2_Tailings integrated platform for Tailings Dams risk analysis and portfolio prioritization

ORE2_Tailings integrated platform for Tailings Dams risk analysis and portfolio prioritization is unique, proven and offers great advantages for its users with great economy of means. Following past experience ORE2_Tailings is based on an integrated approach including: A symptom driven approach which includes 30 diagnostic points covering “the dam’s life” of from inception to the analysis date. A rock-solid benchmarking based on hundred years history of failure and on a theoretical general approach to the evaluation of the probability of…

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Perform operational, tactical and strategic planning avoiding limbic brain traps

We taught MBA students how to Perform operational, tactical and strategic planning avoiding limbic brain traps. During the MBA held at the Turin Business School we ran three exercises geared towards that goal. The exercises 1. A risk assessment on personnel flights This one had the goal to enhance awareness on the need to define the system and the success criteria. It took them a while to formulate the success criteria. Before they did they were considering all possible hazards…

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