We define an Act of God in probabilistic risk assessment as an event with a probability of occurrence below the general consensus for credibility. In other words it is an unbelievable event that is supposed to be unfathomable “God’s will”. We can quantify probabilities down to certain frequency levels. As a matter of fact, in our day-to-day practice we consider events probabilities as follows: down to 10-5 as credible, between 10-5 and 10-6 as poorly credible, and finally, below 10-6…
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Geohazards probabilities frequencies and insurance denial In the anthropocene insurers are facing “new” challenges when insuring against Geohazards. That is true especially for those caused by Human activity. Indeed geohazards probabilities, frequencies and insurance denial constitute a bundle. Insurers have realized that, because of the dynamic evolution, the usual actuarial point of view faces significant challenges and can be misleading. The indiscriminate use of Force Majeure and Insurance denial to protect themselves is actually detrimental to their business and their…
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risks probability uncertainty unpredictability Today it’s kinda windy, some clouds, I feel just fine, but my wife thinks it’s cold when the sun goes incognito behind the clouds. Quite an uncertain weather, right? Focus now on the possible downward outcome: rain later in the day, during our open air BBQ (rain is the hazard, BBQ is the part of the system which will be potentially hit). We can measure the related uncertainty using the POP (Probability of Precipitation) released by…
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