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World War II, survivor bias and risk based decision making

World War II, survivor bias and risk based decision making During World War II bombers crews knew their chances of coming home were extremely low because of anti-aircraft and enemy interception. Airmen were described as “Ghosts already” by the historian K. Wilson. The Air Force asked a panel of scientists, engineers and statisticians to develop a plan to enhance the chances of success of air missions, which in the mind of the military was equivalent to reinforcing the planes, building…

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