biased risk managment Archives

Unrealistic risk assessment describing a rosy scenario

Keystone pipeline has spilled substantially more oil, and more often, than indicated in the risk assessments the company provided to regulators. But why and how a common risk assessment becomes an unrealistic risk assessment describing a rosy scenario? Indeed what regulators saw in the pre-construction project risk assessment was reportedly the following. “A spill of more than 50 barrels will occur “ not more than once every seven to 11 years over the entire length of the pipeline in the…

Event-tree and evolving worms.

Event-tree and evolving worms This week I read in the newspaper that some rootworms are evolving to resist genetically modified corn developed to kill them. The crop itself is not to blame, say scientists, but rather mismanagement by farmers, corporations and lawmakers. …but the scientists’ own recommendations — an advisory panel convened in 2002 by the EPA suggested that a full 50 percent of each corn farmer’s fields be devoted to these non-Bt refuges — were resisted by seed companies and…