The recent failure at Pau Branco Mine, MG, Brazil is a classic example of cascading events. At this Vallourec Mineração (VMN) iron ore mine the failure of an uphill structure/slope led to overtopping of a downstream retention structure. As a result a flood reached a highway and the environment. Photograph provided by: Adolfo Tribst Corrêa A bit of Pau Branco innovation history Back in 2015 this mine was touted as a technological success when a new filter press module was installed.…
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Various neo-mythological risk animals have caught the imagination of businesses and have had world-wide mediatic success. Unfortunately, sometimes even against their creators will, they generate a slanted image. Many use that image as it allows “iffy” constructs. Furthermore it offers an excuse for a classic human behavior. That is doing nothing and procrastinating. Let’s explain the point: black swans are defined by Taleb as “an unpredictable or unforeseen event, typically ones with extreme consequences” however they have been used and…
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We have discussed credible events and black swans several times in this blog, but this time it is different. We do have a real black swan event and we can show it is incredible! 31st December 2019 to end of February I can still recall champagne popping on December 31st 2019. Everyone was merry, the expectations for an incredible 2020, a bissextile year on top of that, were flamboyant. Yes, pun intended. Flying to Italy from Brazil on January 23rd …
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We recently discussed with a client Antifragile resilient solutions for tactical and strategic planning. The theme is interesting and warrants publication this week as it raises a number of interesting issues. We use Rx to indicate our client’s Remarks, and Ax to indicate the our related Answers. Fragile – Robust – Antifragile systems R1) I think there is value in characterizing systems into the three groupings that Taleb presented. That is, Fragile – Robust – Antifragile. Because it gets engineering…
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Risk advisor comments world news related to mining and health & safety Two separate instances just appeared in the South East Asia media which illustrate two cases of “involuntary risks” that populations may be exposed to. Here are the summaries of ou Risk advisor comments world news related to mining and health & safety: 1) Downpours in Quang Ninh (July 27 to August 2) Considered the worst in the past forty years, have reportedly caused flooding and landslides, along with…
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Accident in the Alps is a frustrating, yet empowering reminder Riskope thanks Federico Sasso for this contribution. In our days to day practice at Riskope we are regularly confronted with what we call the “specialist syndrome” and have to tackle political resistance which often delays or hinders rational Risk and Crisis Management implementations. All that seems like a recurring theme which usually foreshadows a disaster. If you think we are being negative, go back to a post Riskope published three…
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Great Recession over? U.S. passed employment peak The News A couple weeks ago, reportedly, the US returned to a level of employment comparable to the pre-2008 level. We see the US and other countries (including Greece) slowly emerging from the crisis, in some cases employment getting back to reasonable pre-recession percentages, but many doubts linger. In the same days we also read that “Americans think economy won’t recover until 2017” and we have read many papers on the income speciation.…
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Some Buzz-words and their meaning. Antifragile Black Swan A new word: Antifragile. It seems like Mr. Taleb has coined a new word: “antifragile.” “Fragile” is the opposite of “robust”. Taleb adds the antifragile word to describe a system that thrives—its performance actually improves— under stress. Taleb’s new book mostly considers the notions of fragility and antifragility in biological, medical, economic, and political systems. Under that definition it is difficult to imagine an engineering systems that would be antifragile? Engineers have…
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