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Lessons learned in twenty years of hazard, risk and resilience analyses

Writing lessons learned in twenty years of hazard, risk and resilience analyses has been a difficult exercise for various reasons. We compiled  and explain lessons learned in our practice of risk assessment and resilience advice to industries, municipalities and regional governments around the world in our latest book, Convergent Leadership – Divergent Exposures: Climate Change, Resilience, Vulnerabilities, and Ethics. However, the fact that we systematically apply our quantitative convergent approach (ORE, Optimum Risk Estimates) to all sorts of industries and…

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Convergent Leadership Divergent Exposures

The title of our new book is Convergent Leadership Divergent Exposures. The manuscript was delivered to our publisher on March 1st 2021 and should be published by July 29th 2021. How will Convergent Leadership Divergent Exposures benefit you? Today’s corporate, industrial and government decision makers must address risks and hazards on a scale never before encountered. As a matter of fact, policy makers and managers face complex business-as-usual hazards, black swans and Acts of God that can lead to devastating…

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Risk Management Guideline for Engineers

The Canadian Engineering Qualifications Board (CEQB) recently published a Risk Management Guideline for engineers. This post discusses some of the concepts and draws parallels with another upcoming publication. Our general comments on Risk Management Guideline for Engineers We saw a number of good points in the Guideline, for instance: a glossary, the clear call for hazard identification, some examples, and finally and perhaps more than anything, the fact it fosters engineers’ awareness for risks. We fully empathize with the desire to generate…

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Codes, resilience and climate change

Many clients are dealing with a conundrum at the cross between codes, resilience and climate change. Solving it is paramount for tactical and strategic planning purposes. Code compliance is not synonymous with resilience When facing good-old hazards that are becoming more frequent and more intense, perhaps due to climate change, it is easy to realize that code compliance becomes meaningless. Indeed, codes work for the “good old way”, both in terms of resilience and frequency. A code compliant solution may…

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Why climate risk and consequence overcost have common similarities

Today we look at why climate risk and consequence overcost have common similarities. Have you ever been involved in a project whose final budget exploded due to consequence of apparently small, negligible schedule or material risks? Similarly, even thus we record small change in weather averages, big impacts are being noticed. Let’s find out why this happens. Probability of overcost vs. Likelihood of event Lets suppose the consequences of a risk scenario vary between 0 and 20M$ with an average…

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Insurance denial amid climate change

We explore today how insurance denial amid climate change will impact assets and other aspects of business. In particular, we think at fires like the Australian bushfires and Fort McMurray (Canada) fire in addition to increasing rains leading to flooding. These will undeniably be a ‘big drag’ on growth and have already generated invaluable losses to biodiversity. Furthermore, insurance denial will become a  problem as we discussed back in 2016 and even as far as 2009. Insurance denial amid climate change…

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Climate adaptation and risk assessment

Climate adaptation and risk assessment are the main themes of a recent ICMM report we read during the holidays. Our take-away from the Climate adaptation and risk assessment report The ICMM report notes that physical climate-change risks and opportunities can impact mining companies in a multitude of ways. Examples are: operations, production, financial, social and finally environmental. Thus, the risk landscape of companies can change quite significantly due to shifts in probabilities of occurrence and consequences of climate-related events. The report…

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Climate change historic prediction

In 1938 the Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society published a Climate change historic prediction. An article by Guy Steward Callendar discussed the artificial production of carbon dioxide and its influence on atmospheric temperature. Artificial production of carbon dioxide and its influence on temperature That paper is reportedly the first alert about a phenomenon that has since preoccupied scores of researchers and is becoming main stream reason for ubiquitous protests and even riots. I do not know if Mr Callendar…

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