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What is the validity of your risk forecast?

When talking to potential customers we oftentimes hear “ What is the validity of your risk forecast? ” What they mean is actually “how precise” our numbers are. That type of questions generally comes from individuals that confuse risk assessment with divinatory arts. They do not recognize that performing a risk assessment is completely different than reading a crystal ball. Another common objection comes from people that claim that no one can evaluate probabilities of events because of complexities, etc.…

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It is not necessary to invoke chaos, “complexity” and “irrational methods” to solve problems

This week we discuss why it is not necessary to invoke chaos, “complexity” and “irrational methods” to solve problems corporations and governments face when dealing with risks and uncertainties. A historic view In the mid-60s Peter L. Bernstein’s 1996 wrote a book entitled “Against the Gods, the remarkable story of risk”. The book offered a historic view of risk management and the forces which drove it. Voices have raised since claiming that accepted risk management practices have reached their obsolescence point.…

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Why when approaching Strategic, Tactical & Operational planning one needs to know about Ostriches, Denial, and Prayers.

Strategic, Tactical & Operational planning While the world was feeling the aftershocks of the Great Recession, we wrote about 16 common Human traits when dealing with hazards and risks. Some of those 16 traits lead individuals and often their organizations to assume stances called Ostrich, Denial or Prayer, resulting in flawed Strategic, Tactical & Operational planning options and occasionally exposing them (and their neighbors, their environment, society at large) to significant hazards which could generate large unintended consequences, i.e. large risks leading to…

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Five keys to healthy planning, project management that every manager needs, but only successful ones know.

Five keys to healthy planning, project management that every manager needs, but only successful ones know. Projects, particularly larger ones, are inherently risky due to long planning horizons and complex interfaces. Inevitable changes in management and workforce personnel during the project’s cycle increase uncertainties. They also generate unwanted additional risk exposures. Five keys to healthy planning, project management that every manager needs, but only successful ones know. May be you are among those who: Are concerned by poor risk identification and…

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