What is the validity of your risk forecast?

When talking to potential customers we oftentimes hear “ What is the validity of your risk forecast? ” What they mean is actually “how precise” our numbers are. That type of questions generally comes from individuals that confuse risk assessment with divinatory arts. They do not recognize that performing a risk assessment is completely different than reading a crystal ball. Another common objection comes from people that claim that no one can evaluate probabilities of events because of complexities, etc.…

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Teaching Risk and Crisis Management. What has changed between 1999 and today?

Teaching Risk and Crisis Management. What has changed In a few months Riskope will celebrate another important anniversary. In 2012 we celebrated two decades of risk and crisis management, decision making support and consulting. In spring 2014 we will reach fifteen years of specialized courses and seminars on the same subject. As we found in our archives the Table of Content of the course we were giving at University of British Columbia (continuous education) UBC in 1999 we decided to…

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The devil is in the details.

“The devil is in the details.” explore what shortcuts in risk management leads to exposures and potential liabilities. We all love rounding numbers, i.e. “erasing the decimals” by pushing the value up or down to the nearest, or more pleasing, integer. When we let our “esthetics sense”, or our will to influence our audience, dominate, we will merrily jump way more than the decimals and come out with “media friendly rounded” values such as “one million people came to the…

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