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SLM and the Probability of failure of a tailings dam

SLM and the probability of failure of a tailings dam goes back 35 years.  A paper entitled “Probability and Risk of Slope Failure” (Silva et al., 2008) proposed using quantification of expert judgement.  That is a subjective/semi-empirical probability evaluation as a practical alternative for determining probability of slope failure. We call this approach SLM, using the initials of the authors. SLM culminates with semi-empirical relationships between Factor of Safety -FoS- and probability of failure -pf-. That relationship allows to estimate…

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Cost and schedule risks

We all know that megaprojects including hydroelectric ones are subject to Cost and schedule risks. Experts recently confirmed this to the Commission of Inquiry Respecting the Muskrat Falls Hydroelectric Project. They said it is common for such projects to evolve with understated early cost estimates. That was the conclusion of a report which looks at 274 hydro dam projects around the world, including projects in Canada. Reportedly this is the largest academic data set of its kind in the world.…

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How to rationally select among alternatives in long term projects with CDA-ESM

Today we discuss how to rationally select among alternatives in long term projects with CDA-ESM. This post is companion to the already published: How to get the most out of (Vegetable) Waste Oil for your Small or Medium Business.  How to rationally select among alternatives in long term projects with CDA-ESM CDA-ESM can help you to select the best option. CDA-ESM is about rationally select among alternatives in long term projects with CDA-ESM. We use an ”average sized” fast food restaurant…

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