Catastrophic failures forensic analyses are, most of the time, left in the hand of experiences engineers. At least, that’s the case for tailings dams failures and other catastrophes like major infrastructural accidents and for instance, aviation. Are we sure that is the best way? Normalization of deviance, management and decision-making are oftentimes ingredients of the catastrophic failure buildup, not only “engineering”. So, we dare to say, Independent Panels should include social scientists. They seem to be the most qualified to…
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Old Mines, Tainted Waters and The Plagues of Egypt. I have always been of the opinion that mythology, ancient Greek Gods, the disappearance of Atlantis, the Plagues of Egypt and many more “legends” were actually accounts of real events, reinterpreted, distorted and made more vivid by millennials of oral transmission, re-interpretations and sheer thrill in magnifying horror stories still present in our media. At each new report of massive oil spills, red tides, masses of plastic debris floating in our…
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World War II, survivor bias and risk based decision making During World War II bombers crews knew their chances of coming home were extremely low because of anti-aircraft and enemy interception. Airmen were described as “Ghosts already” by the historian K. Wilson. The Air Force asked a panel of scientists, engineers and statisticians to develop a plan to enhance the chances of success of air missions, which in the mind of the military was equivalent to reinforcing the planes, building…
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