Today we discuss the Factor of Safety and probability of failure of geostructures. We presented this discussion at TMW 2020 and are delighted to share with you our talk. This information is applicable to dams as well as dumps and pit slopes. However that requires the analyst pay attention to the specific details pertaining each type of structure. Factor of safety and probability of failure of geostructures The Factor of Safety (FoS) measures the ability of a structure to…
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Using ORE2_Tailings we can quantify the impact of standard of care on dams survivability. In this blogpost we take three dams, namely Dam x, Dam y and Dam z. Their design was identical with initial factor of safety of 1.3. In addition, they had similar QA/QC, construction method, same systemic approach, efforts and uncertainties consideration. Various small mishaps hit the dams along their history. Some repairs occurred, under different contracts, different quality control and finally, at different times. It turns…
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SLM and the probability of failure of a tailings dam goes back 35 years. A paper entitled “Probability and Risk of Slope Failure” (Silva et al., 2008) proposed using quantification of expert judgement. That is a subjective/semi-empirical probability evaluation as a practical alternative for determining probability of slope failure. We call this approach SLM, using the initials of the authors. SLM culminates with semi-empirical relationships between Factor of Safety -FoS- and probability of failure -pf-. That relationship allows to estimate…
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Quantifying Tailings Dam Risks at MIRA (Mining Insurance and Risk Association) one hour session took place on June 11th 2020. The talk presented a comprehensive approach to address how to quantify and prioritize tailings dam risks, especially in the context of large dams’ inventories. In this blogpost we summarize the Q/A session that followed the talk, classified by theme. The full talk is viewable on Youtube At the end we present a synthesis before some closing remarks. Understanding geology and…
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Point Read Operate for Tailings Dams design discusses a well-known practice used in other fields. Indeed, if you traveled to Japan you certainly saw metro-trains operators pointing down the platform and calling out—seemingly to no one—as trains roll in and out of the station. Onboard it is much the same, with drivers and conductors performing almost ritual-like movements. If you were in the NAVY you will also remember the PRO method they teach for operating switches, valves, and basically anything.…
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