Framing probabilities of new normal patterns

Framing probabilities of new normal patterns is oftentimes necessary. For example when geopolitical changes, climate change, etc., alter long term “normal” patterns. Oftentimes that occurs with seemingly repeated extreme events. The probabilities in the “New normal” may significantly alter the risk landscape around a project or a corporation. They may transform tolerable risks into intolerable ones, tactical risks into strategic ones (see figure below). To ensure decision-makers and management can keep optimizing tactical and strategic planning a rational, emotionless update…

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