Making sense of Probabilities and Frequencies

Making sense of probabilities and frequencies (in a quantitative way) is necessary to benefit from better risk assessment. Oftentimes users feel compelled to use qualitative approaches to risk assessments. Their justification includes that probabilities are complicated, they require “statistics”. As a result users embrace index-approaches (probabilities are given (absurd) values like 1,2,3..n), qualitative approaches (small, medium, large… “fast-food style”) while believing they will get a good understanding of their risks out of this. In reality, making sense of probabilities and…

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geohazards probabilities frequencies and insurance denial

Geohazards probabilities frequencies and insurance denial In the anthropocene insurers are facing “new” challenges when insuring against Geohazards. That is true especially for those caused by Human activity. Indeed geohazards probabilities, frequencies and insurance denial constitute a bundle. Insurers have realized that, because of the dynamic evolution, the usual actuarial point of view faces significant challenges and can be misleading. The indiscriminate use of Force Majeure and Insurance denial to protect themselves is actually detrimental to their business and their…

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