likelihood Archives

Ship blocked the Suez canal causing a six days business interruption

Recently the Ever Given Ship blocked the Suez canal causing a six days business interruption (BI). In the aftermath of the incident world media reported that never before a ship blocked in such a way the canal. They added “this is a black swan”, a usual preposterous statement. Many enterprises rely on third party companies for shipping goods. Approximately 10% of the global shipping volume goes through Suez Canal as the canal represent a shorter and safer route from Asia to…

The devil is in the details.

“The devil is in the details.” explore what shortcuts in risk management leads to exposures and potential liabilities. We all love rounding numbers, i.e. “erasing the decimals” by pushing the value up or down to the nearest, or more pleasing, integer. When we let our “esthetics sense”, or our will to influence our audience, dominate, we will merrily jump way more than the decimals and come out with “media friendly rounded” values such as “one million people came to the…