Limit of credibility Archives

Act of God in probabilistic risk assessment

We define an Act of God in probabilistic risk assessment as an event with a probability of occurrence below the general consensus for credibility. In other words it is an unbelievable event that is supposed to be unfathomable “God’s will”. We can quantify probabilities down to certain frequency levels. As a matter of fact, in our day-to-day practice we consider events probabilities as follows: down to 10-5 as credible, between 10-5 and 10-6 as poorly credible, and finally, below 10-6…

Limit of credibility in risk assessments

Many users invoke Limit of credibility in risk assessments but rarely discuss what this means. It is possible to establish limits on the credibility of probabilities estimates based upon the limits of human capabilities and the limits of historical evidence? Limit of credibility in risk assessments, what do we really mean? Let’s start with a couple statements that may sound like a joke. …and there was light The Big Bang universe creation occurred 1010 years ago, meaning the “history of…