Today we will tell you our experience of Near misses and pandemic advice. But first of all, we hope this blog-post reaches all of you and your Families healthy and serene. Let us know of your experiences and how you are doing. Travel experiences at the beginning I was in Italy until February 25th after completing several intercontinental trips. There I saw the beginning of the contagion take place. Indeed, Italy was already taking some protective measures then. Then my…
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A study in the Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries explains the relationship between Risk-aversion and near misses in mining. According to a recent study there is a link between near misses and miners’ attitudes toward risky behavior. Frankly, this does not sound like a surprising statement at all. However the study from NIOSH develops a scientific understanding around the gut-feeling perception. Risk-aversion and near misses in mining study NIOSH surveyed more than 1,300 miners, a majority of whom…
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World War II, survivor bias and risk based decision making During World War II bombers crews knew their chances of coming home were extremely low because of anti-aircraft and enemy interception. Airmen were described as “Ghosts already” by the historian K. Wilson. The Air Force asked a panel of scientists, engineers and statisticians to develop a plan to enhance the chances of success of air missions, which in the mind of the military was equivalent to reinforcing the planes, building…
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Close Calls and Human Biases, Near misses receive different interpretations in different countries, cultural backgrounds. Some societies consider them glorified achievements of intuitive semi-gods. In others they are just plain indicators of near failure. When near misses become repetitive, it can be assumed they are the result of a systemic flaw. Systemic flaws only require a small “twist of fate” to turn into an accident, possibly a disaster. In an industrial operation we know of, people became accustomed to a…
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