Near misses and pandemic advice

Today we will tell you our experience of Near misses and pandemic advice. But first of all, we hope this blog-post reaches all of you and your Families healthy and serene. Let us know of your experiences and how you are doing. Travel experiences at the beginning I was in Italy until February 25th after completing several intercontinental trips. There I saw the beginning of the contagion take place. Indeed, Italy was already taking some protective measures then. Then my…

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Risk-aversion and near misses in mining

A study in the Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries explains the relationship between Risk-aversion and near misses in mining. According to a recent study there is a link between near misses and miners’ attitudes toward risky behavior. Frankly, this does not sound like a surprising statement at all. However the study from NIOSH develops a scientific understanding around the gut-feeling perception. Risk-aversion and near misses in mining study NIOSH surveyed more than 1,300 miners, a majority of whom…

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World War II, survivor bias and risk based decision making

World War II, survivor bias and risk based decision making During World War II bombers crews knew their chances of coming home were extremely low because of anti-aircraft and enemy interception. Airmen were described as “Ghosts already” by the historian K. Wilson. The Air Force asked a panel of scientists, engineers and statisticians to develop a plan to enhance the chances of success of air missions, which in the mind of the military was equivalent to reinforcing the planes, building…

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Close Calls and Human Biases

Close Calls and Human Biases, Near misses receive different interpretations in different countries, cultural backgrounds. Some societies consider them glorified achievements of intuitive semi-gods. In others they are just plain indicators of near failure. When near misses become repetitive, it can be assumed they are the result of a systemic flaw. Systemic flaws only require a small “twist of fate” to turn into an accident, possibly a disaster. In an industrial operation we know of, people became accustomed to a…

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