The pelican beak analogy shows enhanced planning benefits. As you probably know it by now, we have expressed skepticism toward using buzzwords like black swan and others, for numerous reasons. That does not stop us, however, to come out today with another avian analogy. The pelican analogy displays in a simplified manner the capital required by an entity, i.e. a project, startup, basically any endeavor. It displays as the straight orange line. The capital produced in the meantime, i.e. the purple…
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We were very pleased when we read on a mainstream media a paper discussing the Advantages and Disadvantages of Net Present Value Method. Net Present Value Forever? Indeed Net Present Value Forever? No, thanks, it’s too risky! The paper addressed investment purposes. However the relation to projects is quite obvious. Actually, aren’t all projects investments? No, CDA/ESM is way better! As our readers know, Riskope has been proposing and successfully applying the proprietary CDA/ESM methodology in planning, projects’ evaluations world-wide, in a number…
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How to select among alternatives. A better and safer method than NPV? For mining rehabilitation or mining transportation system, the “strongest alternative” is the one that has the largest Economic Safety Margin (ESM), evaluated as the difference between the Project Net Gain (PNG)= Project Returns (PR) – Costs (C) and Total Risk (TR), i.e. the value obtained through the Comparative Decision Analysis (CDA) methodology. Where: ESM=PNG-TR=PR-C-TR=PR- (C+TR). The ESM is the difference between the capacity (the “strength” of a project…
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