The Oroville Dam Spillway Incident Report became public in January 2018. The story it tells is remarkably similar to the one we assumed, based on publicly available information in the aftermath of the accident. As risk advisers and managers we discuss below the various statements in the Oroville Dam Spillway Incident Report. We aim at highlighting risk biases and potential management changes to avoid similar developments. Oroville Dam Spillway Incident Report Conclusions Commented The Independent Forensic Team Report made a number…
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A client considering a full scale ORE deployment asked for a risk assessment comparison on a system including 5 macro-elements in one of his processes. A risk assessment comparison on a system including 5 macro-elements The client wanted to compare a quantitative: common practice risk assessment result with risk assessment with ranges expressing probabilities and finally risk assessment where we would consider interdependencies between macro-elements. ORE deployment We estimated quantitative probabilities of failure of each macro-elements based on case histories…
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Season’s Greetings from Riskope! Voeux de Saison par Riskope! Auguri di Stagione da Riskope. Buen Fin de Año y Feliz 2015 CLICK THE PICTURE TO VIEW THE MOVIE! This year Riskope has decided to celebrate the Year End by proposing an animated Tale of King Provvidus, Riskopius, his trustworthy advisor and ORE, his faithful method. Season’s Greetings from Riskope! Voeux de Saison par Riskope! Auguri di Stagione da Riskope. Buen Fin de Año y Feliz 2015. This communication project has taken…
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Riskope ringrazia Federico Fontolan per questo interessante contributo. Osservando il Risk Management Survey 2013 redatto da Aon sulla base dei risultati di un’indagine effettuata tra 1415 società in 70 paesi, possiamo notare come nella top ten dei “rischi d’impresa” figurino “rischi” quali la crisi economica, l’incertezza politica e, con grande rilievo perché al quinto posto assoluto, il “rischio” di perdere o non saper trattenere i talenti. La fotografia che ne deriva è molto interessante perchè sintomatica dell’evoluzione che ha avuto…
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Answer to cognitive biases, oversimplified assessments, vanishing flights and real life lessons We were delighted to receive the following comment related to our last post on LinkedIn: Answer to cognitive biases, oversimplified assessments, vanishing flights and real life lessons: “… Your story captures very well the resultant false sense of security that can develop from the very success we all work so hard to achieve. Another dimension is the dangerous thought that we can survive the unthinkable event. This can…
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What to do instead than common practice Probability Impact Graphs and FMEA Consider this a summarized guide to introduce you to the procedure to avoid obsolete and flawed common practice approaches. What to do instead than common practice Probability Impact Graphs and FMEA? In fact, you can find information on the “rules” for proper risk assessment here an interesting white paper entitled “What you need to know about Risk Management methods” here. The white paper presents the benefits and limitations of…
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Reviewing Car accidents, cold, more examples of biased and misleading FMEA/PIGs results adds to prior information published in this blogpost. In particular we show how results of a Risk assessment matrix 5×5 or 4×4 can actually cloud our judgement. Car accidents, cold, more examples of biased and misleading FMEA/PIGs results Dear X, Thank you for asking us to review your draft Risk Assessment for the ACME Inc. operation. I reviewed your FMEA/PIG risk matrix 4×4 and have the following remarks. Note if…
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We gave a presentation in Toronto. We were at the CIM 2013 conference and the topic was Can we stop misrepresenting reality to the public? The discussion was of course set in the risks related to mining and extractions. Summary of the main points The main points made are summarized below. You will not: manage (your) capital if you do not understand risks. be able to make proper decisions if you do not understand risks and finally, able to operate if…
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