probabilities of failure Archives

Factor of Safety and probability of failure of geostructures

Today we discuss the Factor of Safety and probability of failure of geostructures. We presented this discussion at TMW 2020 and are delighted to share with you our talk. This information is applicable to dams as well as dumps and pit slopes. However that requires the analyst pay attention to the specific details pertaining each type of structure. Factor of safety and probability of failure of geostructures The Factor of Safety (FoS) measures the ability of a structure to…

Cognitive biases, oversimplified assessments, vanishing flights and real life lessons

Cognitive biases, oversimplified assessments, vanishing flights and real life lessons It was a late afternoon in Tokyo, back in the year 2000. I was giving a presentation to a small group of executives from an Japanese airline. 9/11, Air France 447 and Malaysian Airline MH370 had not occurred yet. The subject, I am sure you’d guessed right, was risk management. I was talking about probabilities of events and long chains of small deviations that can lead to accidents. All of a…