Dam portfolio ORE2_Tailings support for decision makers follows-up on a prior example. We will show how to interpret the graph we present in that prior post. Dams probabilities of failure and ORE2_Tailings benchmarking at portfolio level. The portfolio of ten dams is displayed on the annualized probability of failure graph, together with the world-wide benchmarks. This graph shows dams: AA1 entirely under the benchmark range, AA3 straddling the benchmark range (uncertainty on the worse case pf estimate slightly above benchmark),…
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Making sense of probabilities and frequencies (in a quantitative way) is necessary to benefit from better risk assessment. Oftentimes users feel compelled to use qualitative approaches to risk assessments. Their justification includes that probabilities are complicated, they require “statistics”. As a result users embrace index-approaches (probabilities are given (absurd) values like 1,2,3..n), qualitative approaches (small, medium, large… “fast-food style”) while believing they will get a good understanding of their risks out of this. In reality, making sense of probabilities and…
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risks probability uncertainty unpredictability Today it’s kinda windy, some clouds, I feel just fine, but my wife thinks it’s cold when the sun goes incognito behind the clouds. Quite an uncertain weather, right? Focus now on the possible downward outcome: rain later in the day, during our open air BBQ (rain is the hazard, BBQ is the part of the system which will be potentially hit). We can measure the related uncertainty using the POP (Probability of Precipitation) released by…
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In one of our recent post we published a series of embarrassing questions that could arise in Court if you had used PIGs risk matrix…here is how to Avoid liabilities by using Optimum Risk Estimates and you would reply if you had used ORE instead. Questions and replies on ORE use 1) So, on which basis did you decide that the probability of the event was “medium” , and more importantly, how did you evaluate the probability of the events? By…
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