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ORE2 tailings tactical and strategic

As stated earlier ORE2_Tailings™ allows to define in a clear, transparent, and reproducible way which risks are tolerable or intolerable. Among the intolerable risks ORE2_Tailings™ allows to define which risks are tactical and which ones are strategic. We discussed tactical and strategic planning for dam portfolio using ORE2_Tailings™  in https://www.riskope.com/2021/06/30/tactical-and-strategic-planning-for-dam-portfolio-using-ore2_tailings/.  In our reports we show that risks of the considered portfolio belong to a three families as follows: tolerable, meaning they are below the risk tolerance of the client. These…

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ORE2 tailings deployment steps

ORE2 Tailings deployment steps: 5.1 Failure definition We designed ORE2_Tailings™  to support RIDM for tailings dams portfolios reliability enhancements. One achieves reliability by reducing failure likelihood to a certain level, and risks are tolerable. Thus it is necessary to clearly state what one considers the success of a structure within the portfolio. Indeed, unless we clearly define success, failure remains an ambiguous term.   ORE2_Tailings™ considers a dam successful if it: stands as built and does not break allowing for…

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first steps ORE2 tailings workflow

First steps ORE2 tailings workflow: 2 – ARCHIVAL DOCUMENT SEARCH METHODOLOGY The archival documents delivered by the client to Riskope should cover the TSFs and their dams including: geotechnical studies; geological studies; design reports; geotechnical analyses reports; inspections; correspondence; incidents descriptions; dam break analyses; FIA and GISTM consequences evaluations; emergency plans; and finally monitoring (equipment and measurements as applicable). During the deployment we deliver an analysis of the archival gaps, i.e. a list of documents that are apparently missing or…

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General ORE2 tailings workflow

ORE2_Tailings™ is a quantitative risk assessment platform. Riskope designed it specifically for tailings systems (active and inactive). When we deploy ORE2_Tailings™ to a portfolio of dams, possibly over multiple properties, it allows for tactical and strategic planning. Our practice has shown that ORE2_Tailings™ and the general ORE2 tailings workflow, delivers results similar to those of common practice quantitative approaches (Event trees, Failure trees, Bowties). Furthermore ORE2_Tailings™  enables answering specific questions linked to the causality of potential failures, optimization of cost…

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Risk assessment and automation bias

In these days of AI, IoT and other technological developments Risk assessment and automation bias have to be discussed. The definition of Automation bias covers the propensity users have to favor suggestions from automated decision-making systems. Victims of automation bias will ignore contradictory information made without automation, even if it is correct. Automation bias is the last of a long dynasty Automation bias is heir to a dynasty of biases based on the same principle, but seemingly very different one from another,…

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Business as usual definition in Risk Assessment

Business as usual definition in risk assessment, as defined in our day-to-day practice, is an unchanging state of affairs. That is, despite the occurrence of non-divergent hazards of any kind (man-made, natural). An example of business as usual and non divergent hazard For instance, the variability of any parameter as considered and specified in the design of a system is “business as usual”. Therefore that variability does not represent a hazard. For example, the variation of the oil price of…

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Foreseeability and predictability in risk assessments

The discussion of terms such as Foreseeability and predictability in risk assessments is rather common. Like usual, at Riskope we like to have an extremely clear glossary, in order to avoid blunders due to miscommunication. Foreseeability and predictability in risk assessments Foreseeability is the facility to perceive, know in advance, or reasonably anticipate that damage or injury will probably ensue from acts or omissions. A foreseeable event or situation is one that can be known about or guessed before it…

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Act of God in probabilistic risk assessment

We define an Act of God in probabilistic risk assessment as an event with a probability of occurrence below the general consensus for credibility. In other words it is an unbelievable event that is supposed to be unfathomable “God’s will”. We can quantify probabilities down to certain frequency levels. As a matter of fact, in our day-to-day practice we consider events probabilities as follows: down to 10-5 as credible, between 10-5 and 10-6 as poorly credible, and finally, below 10-6…

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