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SLM and the Probability of failure of a tailings dam

SLM and the probability of failure of a tailings dam goes back 35 years.  A paper entitled “Probability and Risk of Slope Failure” (Silva et al., 2008) proposed using quantification of expert judgement.  That is a subjective/semi-empirical probability evaluation as a practical alternative for determining probability of slope failure. We call this approach SLM, using the initials of the authors. SLM culminates with semi-empirical relationships between Factor of Safety -FoS- and probability of failure -pf-. That relationship allows to estimate…

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Cognitive biases apply to tailings discussions

Cognitive biases apply to tailings discussions more than one could think. Indeed, cognitive biases can cloud debates and oftentimes lead to worrisome “alternative facts” bordering with fake news. Cognitive biases are likely hidden in glossy documents, websites, seemingly authoritative statistical approaches which are then oftentimes referenced by inattentive readers. The final effect is of course to perpetrate the cognitive drifts. Original authors foster the noble cause of reducing the risks posed by the hazardous structures used to contain tailings, i.e.…

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Light on Tailings dams failures

The Church of England Pensions Board and the Council of Ethics of the Swedish National Pension Funds published some recently collected numbers shedding some light on Tailings dams failures.   How many active dams in the world did we assume earlier? In the literature we oftentimes see the number 3500 to characterize the total tailings dam inventory in the world. We used that number in both the following papers: Oboni, C., Oboni F., Factual and Foreseeable Reliability of Tailings Dams and…

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Riskope’s new book Tailings Dam Management for the Twenty-First Century

Riskope’s new book Tailings Dam Management for the Twenty-First Century is in print. This book is based on over thirty years of world-wide consulting experience, relentless methodological research and development, prior books, courses, seminars delivered to corporate key stakeholders, public and governmental agencies, public hearings, expert witnessing in civil and criminal courts, and over fifty technical papers. Its purpose is to identify and describe risk assessment approaches and risk management practices mining must implement to develop a positive path forward. That is…

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Innovation in Dams Screening Level Risk Assessment

For some reasons Innovation in Dams Screening Level Risk Assessment feels like an oxymoron. At each new accident organization like MAC produce a new edition of their manuals, for example Developing an Operation, Maintenance, and Surveillance Manual for Tailings and Water Management. The new editions generally represent a strengthening of some rules, but the result is always very similar to the prior edition, does not address systemic failure to properly evaluate risks of old and new facilities. Let’s tackle fundamental…

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Tailings dams quantitative risk assessment

Tailings dams quantitative risk assessment has to rely on proper evaluation of consequences and probabilities. The goal is to be able to economically and swiftly prioritize a portfolio of dams. That is in order to develop risk informed decision making for mitigation as also discussed in a recent blogpost. ORE2_Tailings app to evaluate probabilities ORE2_Tailings app is primarily addressing the needs of owners or regulators of dam portfolios. A dam portfolio may cover several extractive centers, several mining companies with…

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Data required for ORE2-Tailings risk assessment

Every group we present ORE2-Tailings to is curious about the Data required for ORE2-Tailings risk assessment. In follow-up to a presentation, the client requested the following three information:  What are the 30 diagnostic points ORE2-Tailings uses to evaluate the annual probability of failure of a dam?  Is there a peer reviewed publication about the methodology?  What are the steps to define the risk tolerance of a corporation or an operation/project? Data required for ORE2-Tailings risk assessment This section summarily describes…

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Tailings 2.0: Space observation, quantitative risk assessment bring value and comply with societal demands

At the coming Tailings and Mine Waste conference (TMW2018) Riskope and MDA will jointly present a one day course entitled “Tailings 2.0: Space observation, quantitative risk assessment bring value and comply with societal demands” Tailings 2.0: Space observation, quantitative risk assessment bring value and comply with societal demands During the “Tailings 2.0: Space observation, quantitative risk assessment bring value and comply with societal demands” course we will review state of the art risk assessment methodologies and space observation technologies that together…

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